The abstract doesn't mention AI. I estimate the cost of automating the global economy, i.e. replacing all human labor.
I stated the assumption that doing the work of 10^10 people will require computing power equivalent to 10^10 human brain sized neural networks. Of course we don't know that somebody will discover more efficient algorithms for the hardest problems in AI, such as vision and language. So far, nobody has, in spite of enormous incentives. So I will stand by those numbers and you are free to dispute them. The question is open. Nobody has made a molecular scale self replicating robot. Perhaps you can explain why such a thing would be impossible. As a counter example, we have living organisms. You are also free to dispute my other assumptions. But if you do so, it would be helpful to indicate which ones you think are missing or wrong, and what you think they should be. Then you can disagree with my obviously wrong conclusion. On Fri, Dec 7, 2012 at 8:03 PM, Russell Wallace <[email protected]> wrote: > 'The cost of AI' as a single thing to put a number on is fundamentally > confused in the first place - do you mean the cost to do the research, > to make the first crude prototype, to make a more advanced model, to > get a billion units designed, and manufactured, trained and doing > useful work in the economy? By 'AI', do you mean something capable of > passing the Turing test, something capable of doing the average job in > 2012, something capable of doing the average job at some future date, > something capable of convincing the average human that it's conscious, > something that is actually conscious, something capable of matching > the performance of a human genius (in what field)? etc. > > The rest of it is just made up. You don't know in what conditions > people would choose to upload, or whether self replicating robots will > ever exist, or what properties they will have if they do, or what the > future world in which they come to exist will look like and what it > will permit them to do, etc. Nobody does. The future is inherently > unpredictable. What you've done is make up a story in your head, which > is fine but as I said it belongs on fanfiction.net not here. > > On Sat, Dec 8, 2012 at 12:50 AM, Matt Mahoney <[email protected]> wrote: >> I'm looking for more specific criticism. Is my cost estimate of AI too >> high by 10 orders of magnitude? Is it possible at all? Which >> assumptions do you disagree with? What should the numbers be? >> >> I realize that life extension is a more controversial topic. People >> like to argue that a robot that imitates you is not you, or isn't >> conscious, or whatever. I only give the conditions under which people >> will choose to upload, so those philosophical questions are not >> testable and therefore are irrelevant. >> >> Do you disagree with my argument that self replicating robots could >> displace DNA based life? Do you disagree with my point that uploading >> increases the likelihood of this happening. I don't mean to make any >> moral judgments as to whether this is good or bad. People have >> expressed both opinions. >> >> There are probably a lot of assumptions that I neglected to specify. >> Please let me know so I can add them. >> >> >> >> On Fri, Dec 7, 2012 at 7:23 PM, Russell Wallace >> <[email protected]> wrote: >>> I think the question you're really asking is whether there was a >>> mistake in your _calculations_. I didn't see any such - to be sure, >>> you can multiply x by y giving x*y; that's fine, people carry out such >>> calculations every day in pursuit of the answer to questions like the >>> wingspan of a Balrog or the outcome of a fight between the Starship >>> Enterprise and an Imperial Star Destroyer. The mistake is in the idea >>> that the result of such arbitrary calculations regarding imaginary >>> entities in imaginary scenarios has anything to do with real life. >>> >>> On Sat, Dec 8, 2012 at 12:03 AM, Matt Mahoney <[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>>> Was there a mistake in my math? >>>> >>>> On Fri, Dec 7, 2012 at 6:36 PM, Russell Wallace >>>> <[email protected]> wrote: >>>>> In a nutshell, I don't at all mind people writing science fiction >>>>> (though this could do with a bit more in the way of plot and >>>>> characters), but I think it belongs on fanfiction.net rather than >>>>> here. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> ------------------------------------------- >>>>> AGI >>>>> Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now >>>>> RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/3701026-786a0853 >>>>> Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; >>>>> Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] >>>> >>>> >>>> ------------------------------------------- >>>> AGI >>>> Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now >>>> RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/1658954-f53d1a3f >>>> Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; >>>> Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com >>> >>> >>> ------------------------------------------- >>> AGI >>> Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now >>> RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/3701026-786a0853 >>> Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; >>> Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com >> >> >> >> -- >> -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] >> >> >> ------------------------------------------- >> AGI >> Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now >> RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/1658954-f53d1a3f >> Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; >> Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com > > > ------------------------------------------- > AGI > Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now > RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/3701026-786a0853 > Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com -- -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
