Arthur, I am disappointed with the way that A.I. is
depicted in science fiction books and movies. Unfortunately most people
get their idea of what the future will be like from movies and novels. Why
don't they show A.I. and robots in a more realistic scenario? Take Star
Trek for instance. Data is the humanoid robot with the machine
intelligence quotient of 1000 and the human intelligence quotient of 85.
Why don't they make a lot of Data-like robots? Because they supposedly
don't understand how his brain works. Nevertheless, in their holodecks
they routinely generate convincing artificial characters. Why don't they
take the same knowledge that allows them to create artificial intelligences in
their holodecks and build character driven robots that operate in the real human
environment?
It seems obvious that real A.G.I. is just around
the corner. Ben's Novamente progress report says they should have a
working system in 12 to 18 months. Peter's a2i2 project report states that
a proof-of-concept prototype should be
operational in 12 months. Toyota just announced that they will have an
industrial humanoid robot on the market in 2005 to work in factories and other
uses.
But the general public is not expecting humanoid
robots with anything like real intelligence any time soon because every movie
they see about the future either doesn't include robots at all or shows them as
the enemy. Or as in Star Wars, robots with only very limited smarts.
Let's take the Mars rovers as an example of current
robotic expectations. Nasa doesn't trust anything as squishy as real
intelligence, way to unpredictable or controllable. The rovers are touted
as autonomous robots capable of navigating around obstacles and avoiding
hazardous terrain, but they can't do anything without specific orders from home,
not even roll or climb off the lander.
There is such a profound gap between the public's
perception of the state-of-the-art of AGI and the reality of AGI research that
society is in for a major disruption.
Here is an open question for everyone on this email
list: What do you think some of the real world effects on society will be
after the development of AGI?
Mike Deering.
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