I hope you are right, but anyway, the order of development does not make a huge difference. I think many organizations will develop it more or less (with few years shifting) simultaneously as the level of general technology and knowledge grows.
Márk
On 12/19/05, Ben Goertzel <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Based on my somewhat but not completely thorough understanding of the
US military/intel community (I live near DC, have done some consulting
for the community, and know a lot of folks involved with it), I find
it very unlikely that they are seriously pursuing AGI R&D. However,
*watching* people involved with AGI is a lot simpler to carry out, and
I have little doubt this is occurring.
-- Ben
On 12/19/05, Mark Horvath <[EMAIL PROTECTED] > wrote:
> Hi,
>
> I think this is natural. I would do the same, if my job would be to lead the
> creation of AGI in any group you have mentioned; try to collect the best
> brains, and monitor (and store) all important development happening. And
> they have more money for the job than any university, or other research
> facilities, groups. And also, I dont think they are publishing all their
> results, so they have a some advantage in creating the first AGI (but
> luckily there are a lot of civil competitors).
>
> I can only hope that at least the first AGI will be friendly (for all
> humanity, and not a company or state), since in general they will be selfish
> concerning their owner (except if regulated centrally, like by Asimov).
>
> Bests,
> Márk
>
>
>
> On 12/18/05, Shane Legg <[EMAIL PROTECTED] > wrote:
> >
> > My AGI ideas continue to brew away, as they have done for many years.
> > I like to keep a fairly low profile for a few reasons, one being that
> every year
> > I realise how little I knew the previous year! I am however busy in my
> thesis
> > area of theoretical models of universal super intelligence (AIXI etc.) and
> so
> > publish and turn up in magazines etc. from time to time. I also write a
> blog
> > that gets a fair amount of daily traffic.
> >
> > Recently, however, it seems that I've somehow come to the attention of
> > certain groups. To start with I thought that the hits I was getting from
> various
> > military and military related companies were just random and part of the
> > growing number of hits that my blog and website were getting. But things
> > have since become more systematic, with military related aerospace
> > companies, various military bases and even a certain five sided building
> > doing automated scans of my research site, downloading my papers and
> > also scanning my blog.
> >
> > Yeah I know, that sounds crazy. I mean, if these people wanted to watch
> > me, they wouldn't be scanning my stuff using a computer with a Pentagon
> > or other high profile DNS addresses right? I'm sure that if they really
> wanted
> > to watch me they would be far more sneaky and I'd never know about it.
> > I can only presume that for what ever reason, they don't mind me knowing
> > that I'm being watched. I've also found out through other channels that I
> > have attracted some interest. So they aren't being very secret about it.
> >
> > Anyhow, I presume that the reason I'm attracting attention has something
> > to do with my research interests in models of super intelligence, AGI and
> > so on. I can't imagine that anything else about me could be of the
> slightest
> > interest to them at all.
> >
> > Which brings me to my question: Are we (people interested in AGI)
> > being watched?
> >
> > I'd always just presumed that we weren't considered very interesting,
> > at least, not yet.
> >
> > Shane
> >
> >
> >
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