Ben Goertzel wrote: > Hmmm.... > > The inimitable Mentifex wrote: >> http://www.blogcharm.com/Singularity/25603/Timetable.html >> 2006 -- True AI >> 2007 -- AI Landrush >> 2009 -- Human-Level AI >> 2011 -- Cybernetic Economy >> 2012 -- Superintelligent AI >> 2012 -- Joint Stewardship of Earth >> 2012 -- Technological Singularity > > > Regarding the 2009 schedule for human-level AGI, based on what I see > in the field and in my own project, it seems somewhat wishful > thinking, though certainly not impossible. > > I believe the Novamente design is basically a solid design for AGI, > but there are still plenty of details to be worked out --- and I > believe that even if we got a lot of funding right now, achieving > human-adult-level AGI by 2009 would be about the most optimistic > scenario that is at all plausible. > > Unfortunately though, I have to say that we'd have to get lucky to get > there by 2009, even with a lot of funding. > > Working out the details of a complex AI design just takes time -- and > I suspect this will be true for any AI design, be it computer science > based like Novamente, or neuroscience based like the designs that > Hawkins, Guillen and others are dreaming of. > > Heck, look how long it's taken Microsoft to work out the details of > their new operating system release ;-p ... a far simpler thing, though > admittedly occupying far more lines of code... > > **Maybe** of course, there is someone out there with a much simpler > AGI design that will take less long to get fully implemented and > refined -- or maybe there is someone out there with an AGI project > that's much further along... but I have seen no evidence of this... > > Next , regarding the 2012 thing, I have a strong feeling that 2012-ism > is going to start seeming very silly sometime around, er, 2013. > > And this prediction of mine is intended as valid whether or not we > have a Singularity before 2012 (which I very much doubt). > > Please let's restrict discussion on this list to topics more directly > related to Artificial General Intelligence: no 2012-ism!! There are > other lists for that, I'm sure.... > > I realize list traffic has been light lately -- and I've been too busy > with various sorts of practical work (including AGI work, thankfully) > to post a bunch of messages ... but I'd rather have light list traffic > than off-topic list traffic of this nature!! > > thanks > Ben > > ------- > To unsubscribe, change your address, or temporarily deactivate your > subscription, please go to > http://v2.listbox.com/member/[EMAIL PROTECTED] > Not that I think 2009 is probable...but..... To me it seems plausible that we are still missing fundamental techniques in constructing an AI. It is plausible that once those techniques are developed, the AI will self-assemble. This doesn't mean that other approaches won't work, chemistry doesn't stop working because viruses self-assemble.
Of course, since I also don't really believe in a "general intelligence", but rather in a toolkit of techniques to me it appears that this will lead to lots of "small intelligences of specialized nature", and it is these that would self-assemble into a larger "pseudo agi". It wouldn't really be a general intelligence, but it might well come closer to the mark than people do. Timeline? To me it appears that ANYONE who talks about a timeline here, with an intent to be specific, is misleading his audience. Truthfully, I wouldn't say it couldn't happen tomorrow, but if it did the thought processes would be very slow, since the only plausible scenario that I can see is a bot-net that wakes up. Blue-folding (or whatever IBM's latest offering is called) isn't going to be dedicated to "blue-sky" research for any sensible fraction of it's time, and the same is true of the other intentional supercomputers. (I may think that the estimates of the computational needs for human scale intelligence are vastly overstated, but they're still pretty large. [I think much to most of the computation the brain does is related to handling the body. And I also feel that a good "agi" design will modularize this code out of the agi, and have it reside in body specific modules that can be swapped when bodies are swapped. And that ideally the body specific code with run on dedicated cpus...located in the body. This would facilitate consciousness switching from body to body as needed.]) ------- To unsubscribe, change your address, or temporarily deactivate your subscription, please go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/[EMAIL PROTECTED]
