Hi,

The only real case where a human couldn't understand the machine's reasoning
in a case like this is where there are so many entangled variables that the
human can't hold them in comprehension -- and I'll continue my contention
that this case is rare enough that it isn't going to be a problem for
creating an AGI.

Whereas my view is that nearly all HUMAN decisions are based on so
many entangled variables that the human can't hold them in conscious
comprehension ;-)

> 2) IMO the dichotomy between "logic based" and "statistical" AI
> systems is fairly bogus.  The dichotomy serves to separate extremes on
> either side, but my point is that when a statistical AI system becomes
> really serious it becomes effectively logic-based, and when a
> logic-based AI system becomes really serious it becomes effectively
> statistical ;-)

I think that I know what you mean but I would phrase this *very*
differently.  I would phrase it that an AGI is going to have to be able to
perform both logic-based and statistical operations and that any AGI which
is limited to one of the two is doomed to failure.  If you can contort
statistics to effectively do logic or logic to effectively do statistics,
then you're fine -- but I really don't see it happening.

My point is different than yours.  I believe that the most essential
cognitive operations have aspects of what we typically label "logic"
and "statistics", but don't easily get shoved into either of these
categories.  An example is Novamente's probabilistic inference engine
which carries out operations with the general form of logical
inference steps, but guided at every step by statistically gathered
knowledge via which series of inference steps have proved viable in
prior related contexts.  Is this logic or statistics?  If the
inference step is a just a Bayes rule step, then arguably it's just
statistics.  If the inference step is a variable unification step,
then arguably it's logic, with a little guidance from statistics on
the inference control side.  Partitioning cognition up into logic
versus statistics is not IMO very useful.

-- Ben

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