On 10/19/07, J. Andrew Rogers <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > On Oct 18, 2007, at 11:32 PM, John G. Rose wrote: > > It's really hard to sell if the deliverable time frame exceeds 3 to > > 4 years. > > > Why does an AGI deliverable require more than 3-4 years? You better > have a good answer for that, or no one will fund you. Most people > *don't* have a good answer for that. >
Well, when we plotted out everything that seems to need to be done to turn the current NM design into a robust human-child-level AGI, in M$ project, it came out to about 6.5 years for a team of 10-15 top AI engineers. Of course for a smaller, simpler AGI design it could take substantially less work... and of course such estimates have much potential for error ... But my point is: once you have a real AGI design, you can make real time estimates, just like for any other software project (and there are of course other software projects besides AGI that involve some R&D aspects, so there is some experience to go on in making schedule estimates for such things). And as with any other project, the estimates come out as they will based on the technical considerations, regardless of how rapidly the funders or potential funders (or the visionaries who conceived the original idea, for that matter) would like them to come out... -- Ben G ----- This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=55783151-943e31
