I mean that you have to assign likelihoods to beliefs, even if the numbers are wrong. Logic systems where every statement is true or false simply are too brittle to scale beyond toy problems. Everything in life is uncertain, including the degree of uncertainty. That's why we use terms like "probably", "maybe", etc. instead of numbers.
-- Matt Mahoney, [EMAIL PROTECTED] --- On Thu, 9/4/08, Mike Tintner <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > From: Mike Tintner <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > Subject: Re: [agi] open models, closed models, priors > To: agi@v2.listbox.com > Date: Thursday, September 4, 2008, 3:23 PM > Matt:You absolutely must have a means of guessing > probabilities to do > anything at all in the real world > > Do you mean mathematically? Estimating chances as roughly, > even if > provisionally, 0.70? If so, manifestly, that is untrue. > What are your > chances that you will get lucky tonight? Will an inability > to guess the > probability stop you trying? Most of the time, arguably, > we have to and do, > act on the basis of truly vague magnitudes - a > mathematically horrendously > rough sense of probability. Or just: "what the heck - > what's the worst that > can happen? Let's do it. And let's just pray it > works out." How precise a > sense of the probabilities attending his current decisions > does even a > professionally mathematical man like Bernanke have? > > Only AGI's in a virtual world can live with cosy, > mathematically calculable > "uncertainty." Living in the real world is as > Kauffman points out to a great > extent living with *mystery*. What are the maths of > mystery? Do you think > Ben has the least realistic idea of the probabilities > affecting his AGI > projects? That's not how most creative projects get > done, or life gets > lived. Quadrillions, Matt, schmazillions. > > > > > ------------------------------------------- > agi > Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now > RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ > Modify Your Subscription: > https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com ------------------------------------------- agi Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=111637683-c8fa51 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
