I found the paper. As I guessed, their update operator is defined on the whole probability distribution function, rather than on a single probability value of an event. I don't think it is practical for AGI --- we cannot afford the time to re-evaluate every belief on each piece of new evidence. Also, I haven't seen a convincing argument on why an intelligent system should follow the ME Principle.
Also this paper doesn't directly solve my example, because it doesn't use second-order probability. Pei On Sat, Sep 20, 2008 at 10:13 PM, Ben Goertzel <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > The approach in that paper doesn't require any special assumptions, and > could be applied to your example, but I don't have time to write up an > explanation of how to do the calculations ... you'll have to read the paper > yourself if you're curious ;-) > > That approach is not implemented in PLN right now but we have debated > integrating it with PLN as in some ways it's subtler than what we currently > do in the code... > > ben > > On Sat, Sep 20, 2008 at 10:02 PM, Pei Wang <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >> >> I didn't know this paper, but I do know approaches based on the >> principle of maximum/optimum entropy. They usually requires much more >> information (or assumptions) than what is given in the following >> example. >> >> I'd be interested to know what the solution they will suggest for such >> a situation. >> >> Pei >> >> On Sat, Sep 20, 2008 at 9:53 PM, Ben Goertzel <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >> > >> >> >> >> >> >> Think about a concrete example: if from one source the system gets >> >> P(A-->B) = 0.9, and P(P(A-->B) = 0.9) = 0.5, while from another source >> >> P(A-->B) = 0.2, and P(P(A-->B) = 0.2) = 0.7, then what will be the >> >> conclusion when the two sources are considered together? >> > >> > There are many approaches to this within the probabilistic framework, >> > one of which is contained within this paper, for example... >> > >> > http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=16174172 >> > >> > (I have a copy of the paper but I'm not sure where it's available for >> > free online ... if anyone finds it please post the link... thx) >> > >> > Ben >> > ________________________________ >> > agi | Archives | Modify Your Subscription >> >> >> ------------------------------------------- >> agi >> Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now >> RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ >> Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; >> Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com > > > > -- > Ben Goertzel, PhD > CEO, Novamente LLC and Biomind LLC > Director of Research, SIAI > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > "Nothing will ever be attempted if all possible objections must be first > overcome " - Dr Samuel Johnson > > > ________________________________ > agi | Archives | Modify Your Subscription ------------------------------------------- agi Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=114414975-3c8e69 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
