My guess is as follows:
There are 8627 subscribed members on the main dev board. There may be
people on other boards who are not on this board, but since I have no
way of selecting unique members from across all boards, I'm just going
to select the unique members from the most popular board.
To read the board, you don't need to subscribe as a member. To write,
you need to subscribe as a member. So we can safely assume that those
8627 people have subscribed to write at least once. We can probably
assume that if you've posted something on a DEV board, you've at least
downloaded the SDK and try to run the emulator. The maximum number of
entries from such pool would be 8627, assuming each member is truly
unique -- that is, a person doesn't have more than one account,
Now, there are probably geniuses out there that probably don't even
read nor write on this board. This is evident by new members who post
their submission, but if you look at their history, they have no other
posted entries. Let's say that 10% of the population are geniuses.
10% of 8627 is 863.
We add 863 to 8627 to get our new total pool size: 9490.
>From this new total, we assume the following:
50% of population are inexperienced, out of time, or just gave up.
So we cut 9490 to 4745. From this new pool, we assume
40% of entries are from teams/corporations, of which
25% are in team of two and submitted 1 entry.
15% are in team of three and submitted 1 entry.
60% of entries are from individuals, of which
30% are normal individual people who submitted 1 entry.
20% are overachieving people and submitted 3 entries.
10% are super overachievers (or have too much time on their
hands) and submitted 5 entries.
So we have
4745 * 0.25 = 1187 in teams of two = 594 entries
4745 * 0.15 = 712 in teams of three = 238 entries
4745 * 0.3 = 1424 individual entries
4745 * 0.2 * 3 = 2847 individual entries from those who submitted 3
each.
4745 * 0.1 * 5 = 2373 individual entries from those who submitted 5
each.
In total, 594 + 238 + 1424 + 2847 + 2373 = 7476 unique entries.
The number seems huge at first glance because we've we've assumed that
whoever downloaded and ran the emulator is a candidate for entry. But
remember, we've cut 50% of that population out.
To compute your chances of winning, divide your number of entries by
the total above. This of course, assumes all entries are of equal
quality, which they are not.
So my guess is about 7000 unique entries from about 3500 entities.
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