Love these analysis.. keep them coming folks! My original guess was 10,000. My revised one was 900. So I'll stick to my range of 10,000 - 900 entries :)
On Wed, Apr 16, 2008 at 4:00 AM, John P. <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > My guess is as follows: > > There are 8627 subscribed members on the main dev board. There may be > people on other boards who are not on this board, but since I have no > way of selecting unique members from across all boards, I'm just going > to select the unique members from the most popular board. > > To read the board, you don't need to subscribe as a member. To write, > you need to subscribe as a member. So we can safely assume that those > 8627 people have subscribed to write at least once. We can probably > assume that if you've posted something on a DEV board, you've at least > downloaded the SDK and try to run the emulator. The maximum number of > entries from such pool would be 8627, assuming each member is truly > unique -- that is, a person doesn't have more than one account, > > Now, there are probably geniuses out there that probably don't even > read nor write on this board. This is evident by new members who post > their submission, but if you look at their history, they have no other > posted entries. Let's say that 10% of the population are geniuses. > 10% of 8627 is 863. > > We add 863 to 8627 to get our new total pool size: 9490. > > From this new total, we assume the following: > > 50% of population are inexperienced, out of time, or just gave up. > > So we cut 9490 to 4745. From this new pool, we assume > 40% of entries are from teams/corporations, of which > 25% are in team of two and submitted 1 entry. > 15% are in team of three and submitted 1 entry. > > 60% of entries are from individuals, of which > 30% are normal individual people who submitted 1 entry. > 20% are overachieving people and submitted 3 entries. > 10% are super overachievers (or have too much time on their > hands) and submitted 5 entries. > > So we have > 4745 * 0.25 = 1187 in teams of two = 594 entries > 4745 * 0.15 = 712 in teams of three = 238 entries > > 4745 * 0.3 = 1424 individual entries > 4745 * 0.2 * 3 = 2847 individual entries from those who submitted 3 > each. > 4745 * 0.1 * 5 = 2373 individual entries from those who submitted 5 > each. > > In total, 594 + 238 + 1424 + 2847 + 2373 = 7476 unique entries. > > The number seems huge at first glance because we've we've assumed that > whoever downloaded and ran the emulator is a candidate for entry. But > remember, we've cut 50% of that population out. > > To compute your chances of winning, divide your number of entries by > the total above. This of course, assumes all entries are of equal > quality, which they are not. > > So my guess is about 7000 unique entries from about 3500 entities. > > > -- take care, Muthu Ramadoss. http://mobeegal.in find stuff closer. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Android Challenge" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/android-challenge?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
