I blogged about this <http://bit.ly/qfo5Ab> topic a few days ago, and then 
saw this thread.  I recently released a new project that I've been dinking 
around with for a few months while learning something about gaming, and was 
surprised to see how much marketing an app has changed since the last time I 
went through the exercise. 

The days of gaming the market are gone, IMO.  Google is getting serious 
about making money with the market, and they are funneling devs into their 
advertising programs as a means of getting the word out.  I think the idea 
of spending money to market an app is going to be hard for part-time devs to 
swallow.  I also think that Google has made or is in the process of making a 
move AWAY from paid apps towards advertising in apps.  

The main problem that I see with advertising as a primary source of revenue 
is that it simply doesn't work for many types of apps.  Even when it does, 
it's my opinion that advertising in the context of mobile is done horribly 
wrong.  It sucks.  It's cumbersome, clumsy, and quite frankly could be done 
so much better.  And yes, I have been looking long and hard at how to do 
things better.  

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