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Neue Zurcher Zeitung
August 13, 2001    
 
[O]ne of the most serious weaknesses of the agreement
has to do precisely with disarming the rebels. Anyone
who believes that they will simply surrender their
arms peacefully has failed to learn from previous
experience in the region. The power of the rebel
forces is based on the weapons. When they want to up
the ante for concessions, they simply launch an
attack.
[After these astute observations the drug kicks in.]

 Abstract
War or Peace in Macedonia?
The agreement initialed on 8 August in Macedonia may
have become worthless before the scheduled signing
five days later. It is unclear whether foreign
mediators will manage to impose the compromise before
the conflict spins out of control. The most recent
threat to the agreement came when a Macedonian army
convoy was attacked by forces of the National
Liberation Army (UCK), costing ten lives.
The timing of the UCK attack, just hours before the
political agreement was reached, suggests that at
least some of the Albanian rebel forces are no longer
under the control of the politicians. It points up the
fact that one of the most serious weaknesses of the
agreement has to do precisely with disarming the
rebels. Anyone who believes that they will simply
surrender their arms peacefully has failed to learn
from previous experience in the region. The power of
the rebel forces is based on the weapons. When they
want to up the ante for concessions, they simply
launch an attack.

The Macedonians must remember that there can be no
military resolution to the conflict. But only NATO, by
disarming the rebels, using force if necessary to do
so, is in a position to create the necessary
preconditions for implementing the agreement. With
Western leaders afraid to risk military casualties,
the chances for peace are slim.

13 August 2001 / First published in German, 10 August
2001 
  
  

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