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Japan Has Technology for Nukes, Needs the Will Opposition Liberal Party President Ichiro Ozawa's recent statements that Japan could easily build a nuclear arsenal and outgun China elicited little debate inside Japan. The question of a nuclear Japan is not one of technology but of political will, and the muted reaction of the country's politicians and public points to the rapid shift in Japanese thinking on issues of defense over the past few years. Analysis Recent statements by the president of Japan's opposition Liberal Party about the country's nuclear arsenal were less significant in what was said than in how the country responded. Ichiro Ozawa said April 6 that Japan could easily produce several thousand nuclear weapons, and gain the upper hand on China, if it was challenged by Beijing. The comments by Ozawa, known for his strong views on Japan's national security, were not particularly astonishing. Neither, quite frankly, is the idea that Japan is technically capable of producing nuclear weapons. What is interesting is the mild reaction to his remarks inside Japan. There is a steady political evolution taking place in the country, and the once taboo issues of military deployments, constitutional changes and nuclear weapons no longer elicit a massive uproar from the politicians or the public. Ozawa was not exaggerating when he said Japan was capable of producing several thousand nuclear devices. The country by some estimates has enough weapons-grade plutonium from its fast-breeder reactors to build as many as 6,000 weapons, and there is little doubt about Japan's technical ability to build such weapons. A nuclear program in Japan then is not limited by technology, as it may be in countries like Pakistan and North Korea, but by political will. And resistance to changing Japan's defensive posture is fading. The non-reaction to Ozawa's comments contrast sharply with the domestic and international outcry that followed comments by former Vice Minister of Defense Shingo Nishimura in a 1999 interview with Japan's version of Playboy, in which he said "if Japan armed itself with nuclear weapons it may be better off." The minister was forced to resign, and the public outcry nearly broke apart the fledgling coalition between the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Nishimura's Liberal Party. Other "provocative" statements by Japanese politicians have been similarly received. Japanese Defense Agency Chief Fukushiro Nukaga resigned in 1998, ostensibly over an agency procurement scandal, though his statement that a pre-emptive strike on North Korean missile sites could be considered "defense" under Japan's constitution did little for his political longevity. Former Justice Minister Shozaburo Nakamura also resigned in 1999, following accusations that he used his position to let actor Arnold Schwarzenegger into the country without a passport. He had already been under extreme pressure to resign, however, after suggesting that Japan's constitution was U.S.-imposed pacifism that forced Japan to remain defenseless. The fact that Ozawa could make his recent comments without facing major criticism demonstrates the change in Japan's politics, with the constitution and principles of pacifism no longer untouchable subjects. This shift in national consciousness began with the end of the Cold War, when Japan -- still a major economic power -- realized that the loss of the Soviet threat reduced Washington's dependence on Tokyo, and thus the two allies' strategic interests would no longer always mesh. With the 1998 North Korean missile launch over Japan, and East Timor's referendum for independence from Indonesia a year later, Japan's military policy slowly began to evolve. The Sept. 11 attacks and Washington's global anti-terrorism campaign have accelerated this change. Although a nuclear-armed Japan is not yet on the horizon, there is little standing in the way. Japan already has a developing space program, and while its H-2A rocket makes a poor Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, earlier satellite-launch systems could more easily be seen as predecessors to ballistic missiles. In addition, Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, a major defense contractor, works closely with the United States and the Japanese government in aerospace technology. Mitsubishi has produced several indigenous missiles for the Japanese Self Defense Forces, including the SSM-1 Type-88, a surface-to-surface missile with ground-, ship- and submarine-launch capabilities. Japan doubtlessly has the ability to create follow-on designs with longer range and a bigger payload, and it is more than possible that such development is continuing outside the public eye. Ultimately, Japan's military and even nuclear evolution is not really a question of technological skill but one of political will, and the scant attention paid to Ozawa's remarks suggests that such changes in the Japanese political mindset have jumped decades in the past few years. --------------------------- ANTI-NATO INFORMATION LIST ==^================================================================ This email was sent to: archive@jab.org EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.a9617B Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================ |
