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1) US 'Seeking Not To Settle Iraqi Crisis, But To
Provoke War'
2) Turkish Parliament's Refusal A Serious Political
Defeat For George Bush
3) Vladimir Putin Applauds Turkish Parliament's Vote
Against US Troop Deployment
4) Russian Military Expert On US War Plans
5) Russian Analyst: US Planning To 'Quickly Switch
Over' From Massive Bombardments To All-Out War


http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=3075680&startrow=11&date=2003-03-04&do_alert=0

Russian Information Agency
March 4, 2003

RUSSIAN EXPERT: WAR IN IRAQ PREDETERMINED 

MOSCOW, March 4, 2003. /from a RIA Novosti
correspondent/. - A sharp activation of US and UK air
forces in Iraq testifies to the fact that the
operation might begin just in a few days, Leonid
Ivashov, Vice President of the Academy of Geopolitical
Problems, said on Tuesday. 

According to him, the increase in air strikes by US
and UK aircraft in Iraq proves first of all that the
question whether the US operation against Iraq will
take place or not has already been decided in
Washington. The US "is seeking not to settle the Iraqi
crisis, but to provoke war." At present the US "is
actually conducting a preliminary stage of the
operation to bring informational influence to bear
upon and hold down morally and psychologically Iraq's
army and civilians." The Russian expert also pointed
out that a significant part of February's air strikes
were targeted at communication centres. "The US is
reasonably seeking to disable Iraq's military
infrastructure, first of all troops control systems.
All the above-said tells of a decision to begin the
operation, which might be taken in a few days,"
Ivashov believes. 
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http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=3076020&startrow=1&date=2003-03-04&do_alert=0

Russian Information Agency
March 4, 2003

REFUSAL OF TURKISH PARLIAMENT IS GEORGE W. BUSH'S
SERIOUS POLITICAL DEFEAT 

MOSCOW, March 4th, 2003. /From a RIA Novosti
correspondent/. - Sergei Rogov, head of the USA-Canada
Studies Institute under the Russian Academy of
Sciences sees the refusal of the Turkish Parliament to
deploy the U.S. troops in Turkey as "George W. Bush's
serious political defeat." According to Mr. Rogov, the
Northern Turkish front would have posed a serious
threat to Iraq because a simultaneous military strike
both from the north and from the south could have led
to a rapid victory against Iraq. 

Now the U.S. troops, Mr. Rogov stressed, will have to
attack Iraq from one direction only and it will be
easier for Iraq to organize defence. According to him,
it will cause more casualties among U.S. servicemen
and protract hostilities. 
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http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=3075255&startrow=21&date=2003-03-04&do_alert=0

Russian Information Agency
March 4, 2003

VLADIMIR PUTIN HIGHLY ASSESSES DECISION OF TURKISH
PARLIAMENT 

MOSCOW, MARCH 4. (FROM RIA NOVOSTI CORRESPONDENT).
Vladimir Putin highly assessed the decision made by
the Turkish parliament to bloc the possibility of
using the country's military bases for US armed forces
operations against Iraq. 

The Russian President declared at a session with
government members in the Kremlin on Tuesday that this
is "the most important event" of the last days. 

"May be it was unexpected for somebody but not for
Russia," said the head of state and added that "we
understand what the Turkish parliament was guided by."

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http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=3075969&startrow=1&date=2003-03-04&do_alert=0

Russian Information Agency
March 4, 2003

RUSSIAN MILITARY EXPERT ON SCENARIO OF POSSIBLE
MILITARY OPERATION AGAINST IRAQ 

-[T]here is no ruling out a partisan war in the
country with a population of 22 mln, which can drag
out both the military operation and post-war
settlement in Iraq, the official believes. 
Klyuchenok is sceptical about the intention to
overthrow power in Baghdad, alluding to the example of
Afghanistan, where the take-over resulted in a
"vigorous flourishing of drug production and trade". 


MOSCOW, March 4, 2003. /from a RIA Novosti corr./ -
The scenario of a possible military operation against
Iraq is unlikely to differ much from the Desert Storm
operation, Lieutenant General Vasily Klyuchenok,
deputy head of the Federation Council's Defence and
Security Committee, said at Tuesday's press conference
in RIA Novosti. 

The main constituent of the potential military
operation will be "the use of high-precision weapons
and ample aviation", he believes. First of all,
strikes will be targeted at the objects mentioned by
US Secretary of State Colin Powell in the UN Security
Council early in February, Klyuchenok said. 

The MP thinks the main target of the land operation to
be the take-over of Baghdad. 

"The coalition hopes for soonest and positive results
of the military action in Iraq," Vasily Klyuchenok
remarked. However, there is no ruling out a partisan
war in the country with a population of 22 mln, which
can drag out both the military operation and post-war
settlement in Iraq, the official believes. 

Klyuchenok is sceptical about the intention to
overthrow power in Baghdad, alluding to the example of
Afghanistan, where the take-over resulted in a
"vigorous flourishing of drug production and trade". 
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http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=3075951&startrow=1&date=2003-03-04&do_alert=0

Russian Information Agency
March 4, 2003

RUSSIAN SENATOR COMMENTS ON GROWING AIR STRIKES ON
IRAQ 

MOSCOW, MARCH 4. /RIA NOVOSTI/. - The fact that the US
and British air forces stepped up air attacks on Iraq
in February proves that the preparation for a military
operation is entering the final phase. Russian Air
Force Lieutenant General Vasily Klyuchenok, second in
charge of the defence and security committee of the
Federation Council, or the upper parliamentary house,
said this as addressing a press conference at the
Novosti news agency on Tuesday. 

"Intensification of flights proves that pilots are
completing training, studying the territory they are
going to bomb," said the general. 

"Modern wars are modelled by computer then trained
under realistic combat-like conditions," said General
Klyuchenok. 

This confirms the assumption that a war in Iraq will
start with a massive air attack, opined the senator. 

Yet, it cannot be said with certainty that the war
will be launched some time soon, added the senator.
The coalition might have intensified flights over Iraq
simply to "divert attention." As RIA Novosti knows
from a reliable source in Russian security agencies,
in February US and British combat aircraft made 1,732
sorties, while their record in January was 1,593
sorties. 

The coalition aircraft made 20 strikes on Iraq's land
targets, basically communication facilities. Two
persons died as a result. Air raids on facilities in
the Basra, Di Qar, Meisan and Nainawa provinces were
the most frequent, according to Russian special
services. 
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http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=3075362&startrow=21&date=2003-03-04&do_alert=0

Russian Information Agency
March 4, 2003

ARE INCREASED AIR STRIKES ON IRAQ A PRELUDE TO
FULL-SCALE WAR? 

MOSCOW, MARCH 4. /FROM A RIA NOVOSTI CORRESPONDENT/. -
Deputy director of the Institute of the USA and Canada
of the Russian Academy of Sciences Viktor Kremenyuk
believes that the dramatic increase of the strikes on
Iraq by the aviation of the USA and Great Britain can
be viewed as an intermediate phase in the preparation
for a possible military operation in that country. 

As the scientist said, "the Americans would like to
quickly switch over" from the bombardments of part of
the Iraqi territory "to an all-out war." While the
"no-fly zones" are bombed on the basis of the
resolutions of the UN Security Council, so far there
is no sanction of the UN Security Council for a
military operation of the USA and Great Britain in
Iraq. 

The sharp increase of the bombardments of the "no-fly
zones" "causes alert because it can signify transition
to the actions (in Iraq) which the USA is threatening
with," Kremenyuk noted. 

On Monday Defence Minister of Great Britain Jeoffrey
Hoon, speaking in the House of Commons of the British
parliament, confirmed that the number of the aircraft
which are used in patrolling the "no-fly" zones in the
north of Iraq and the number of their sorties had
increased. As he claimed, this is being done in
accordance with international law and pursues
defensive aims. 

According to an informed source in the Russian special
services, in February the combat planes of the Air
Forces of the U.S. and Great Britain set a new record
of the number of sorties - they numbered 1,732. By way
of comparison, the respective figure for January was
1,593. 
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