Risk analyses are routinely made for all sorts of situations on things that haven't even been done yet; I think it hardly stretches the imagination to do it on technologies that have been studied for a couple of decades.

That not enough studies are being done is due to bad policy choices by regulators, and unscrupulous manipulation of the policy process by large agri-business, neither of which do I approve. But it's also because there are few voices of reason pushing for good analysis: while agri-business has taken a blunt force approach to pushing GMOs into the food chain, the organic movement has stuck it's head in the sand and rejected the science without analysis. More shame on both of them, if you ask me, but hardly a reason to reject out of hand the notion of using the technology.

As for consumer rejection: you're probably right, but only because the scare tactics of an anti-science movement has created the mindset for that rejection. Just as earlier posters have argued (correctly, in my view) that most consumers don't know what they are buying when they buy organic - it's a brand somehow loosely associated with health and the environment and that's about all - they don't know what they are rejecting when they reject genetic engineering technology, they just remember "Frankenfood" and the supposed "un-naturalness" of gene swapping. And this is not speculation on my part: I've purposely asked my colleagues both in the US and Europe, all of whom are well-educated, upper-middle class professionals, why they prefer organic, and why they reject GMOs. I have never once gotten an answer more sophisticated than "I just think it's more healthy" for the former, or "It doesn't seem safe" for the latter.

I can appreciate in the abstract what the organic movement has accomplished in establishing their brand, but I don't admire them, and in fact have come to seriously deprecate them, for the fact that their success is based on anti-science fear-mongering, and feel-good, content-free branding, when they could be focusing on education and responsible analysis and choices.

Finally, just for the record, I don't have a personal stake in this argument against the organic program as it now exists. Much of the food I buy is certified organic, and the vast majority of what I raise (which is a large fraction of what I eat by any standard), is produced in a way that could be certified organic if I wanted it to be. Certainly, some of the horticulturists and farmers I respect most have chosen organic certification. And, the few non-organic certifiable practices I do use, I choose for their low environmental impact and residual toxicity, using the best data I can get.



At 06:54 PM 3/16/2007, you wrote:
I don't see how there can be a risk assessment of GMO's, because they have not been around long enough for meaningful analysis, and also, studies are not being done. From a marketing standpoint, they must be excluded from organic products or consumers would
boycott them.


--- Steve Demuth <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

> Con,
>
> I in fact agree with nearly all of your analysis about the potential
> risks of genetically modified organisms.  Clearly this is a risky
> business.  Just as clearly, any chemical application has risks, both
> short and long term, as does virtually everything we do to our
> environment and each other.  Notwithstanding that, we have no
> realistic option but to make choices, and try to make them as
> intelligently as possible.
>
> So my beef with the organic certifications approach is that it is a
> blanket prohibition on GM as a technique, rather than guidelines for
> what sort of modifications present greater or lesser risk:benefit
> ratios, and in practice, a blanket prohibition on "chemicals," rather
> than guidelines for testing them in terms of risk:benefit.
>
> To me, certification should server the same purpose in agriculture as
> a policy on immunization does in public health: yes, it imposes costs
> and risks, but overall, we can conclude the net benefit justifies the
> costs and risks.  I don't see that kind of nuance in the organic
> guidelines, and it has really turned me off on the movement, even
> though I respect their stated goals, and individually respect many of
> the participants.  Worse, when I get together with any significant
> number of organic advocates, the mind closing seems to be re-enforced
> by numbers.
>
>
> At 07:49 AM 3/14/2007, you wrote:
> >Hello again,
> >I also wanted to comment as follows on Steve's observations.
> >I am not an organic grower, and do not agree with their perspective
> >on everything. However, I do feel that the early adopters of organic
> >are very good people, who did the rest of us a service, by being
> >critical of the general consensus of the greatness of all
> >agricultural advancements, some of which, though we did not know it
> >at the time, had serious downsides as well. It is important to look
> >critically and objectively at every new development, to assess
> >whether it really can deliver what it proposes, and whether there
> >are any potential downsides that have not yet become obvious.
> >It is also important for organic producers to think critically of
> >their own stance, and find if they can also do things differently.
> >And science is a great vehicle to use in this observation.
> > From my perspective, I do have some problems with the adaptation of
> > genetically modified plants, and I think the organic groups are
> > right to be wary.
> >Apart from the nasty behaviour of corporations against farmers
> >regarding violations of their patent rights (I have a problem with
> >the practice of allowing genes to be patented), there are some
> >unresolved questions (as well as some which have probably have not
> >even been thought of yet).
> >Human health:
> >Antibiotic resistant marker (ARM) genes were often added to the
> >genetic cassette (the gene segment being added to the plant to be transformed.
> >After insertion of the new genes, antibiotics are applied to the cells.
> >These kill un-transformed cells, leaving the few transformed ones.
> >Critics said that it was a bad idea to allow these transformed
> >plants having genes that are coding for resistance to antibiotics
> >into the environment, but the GM proponents said it was not a worry,
> >because it could not happen.
> >Now, quite a few years later, it is now considered bad practice to
> >leave ARM genes in transformed plants, because of the small but real
> >risk of incorporation of this DNA into the gut bacteria of plants or
> >animals than eat modified plants.
> >This is because of a trial (the only one ever conducted to see if
> >this could happen). Volunteers were fed a single meal of a burger
> >and a milk shake containing GM Soya. (Study conducted in 2002 by UK
> >Food Standards Agency). There were 12 healthy volunteers and 7
> >volunteers who had previously had their colons surgically removed.
> >In healthy volunteers there was no evidence that gut bacteria had
> >taken up the DNA. In three of the seven people without a complete
> >digestive tract, it was found that bacteria had taken up modified
> >DNA from the Soya. Implies that gut bacteria could take advantageous
> >genes from GM food, to enhance their own characteristics, and the
> >end point of such a transformation is completely unpredictable.
> >There is also the issue of allergens to human health:
> >The genes that are transferred from the donor organism are not
> >necessarily selected individually.
> >As a consequence, unintentional transfers can take place.
> >In 1993, a company developed a modified soybean (producing extra
> >methionine; a desirable trait) using donor DNA from the Brazil nut.
> >The modified soybean produced immunological reactions in people
> >usually allergic to Brazil nut.
> >Development was discontinued, and the modified soybeans destroyed.
> >The difficulty this example highlights is that until individual
> >genes coding for desirable traits can be selectively transferred,
> >without risk of also transferring undesirable genes, or the
> >mutations inevitably associated with the transfer process as
> >currently undertaken can be eliminated, plants posing a risk to
> >human or animal health could be accidentally put on sale.
> >This is because of the regulatory concept of "substantial
> >equivalence" - Basically, genetically modified plants do not need to
> >be tested for safety before being released, as they are considered
> >substantially equivalent to plants produced in conventional breeding.
> >Another allergy issue was highlighted in a paper published in
> >November 2005, when a pest resistant field pea developed in
> >Australia for use as a pasture crop was shown to cause an allergic
> >reaction in mice. The gene in question, which inhibits amylase (a
> >dietary starch digestion enzyme), was transferred from beans to
> >peas. What the results showed is that the protein, when synthesized
> >in pea leaves had a different immunogenicity than when it was
> >isolated from bean leaves (the native form).
> >This was considered surprising to the researchers (though not to
> >sceptics) but was thought to be related to the presence of slightly
> >different carbohydrate chains in each plant.
> >Environmental effects:
> >Whatever about the possible health effects of consuming GM foods, at
> >least consumer have choice in this regard. Once a GM crop is
> >released to the environment, it is impossible to recall it, and
> >environmental considerations should be treated with importance.
> >The effect on non-target organisms, in for example, consuming Bt
> >crops is self-evident. They are also killed, with the adverse
> >effects on biodiversity.
> >However, the effects of gene drift to wild relatives, and the
> >knock-on to non-target organisms has not yet been defined.
> >The issue of super-weeds is also a realistic worry. It is entirely
> >possible that a crop species could become a difficult-to-control
> >weed species, or by gene drift, that an existing weeds species would
> >become more difficult to control.
> >There is also the real risk of genetically modified toxin-producing
> >plants grown for fuel or fibre accidentally transferring genes to
> >food species. You then have a toxic crop plant.
> >Not to mention liability for contamination of crops grown by farmers
> >who wish to produce GM-free ingredients. Who will pay to put things
> >right if there is damage to the environment as a result of using
> >genetically modified crops? Should the companies producing GMOs and
> >making profits from them be responsible? Or should the state pay
> >because it has approved the use of a GMO and society has had the
> >"benefit" of using them?
> >Companies and governments often argue that GM crops and foods are
> >thoroughly assessed for safety so adverse effects should, in theory,
> >be unlikely. Despite this they are often reluctant to see strict
> >liability rules introduced. The polluter pays principal would
> >dictate that companies producing GMOs should take responsibility for
> >their products, including any adverse effects on the environment.
> >Critics say that to have confidence that the whole process of GM
> >risk assessment is being undertaken rigorously, that environmental
> >liability is an important safeguard.
> >Here in Europe The Environmental Liability Directive (ELD - 2004/35)
> >provides the liability regime for environmental harm arising from
> >the use of genetically modified organisms (GMOs). This is the regime
> >that was promised during the negotiation of the Deliberate Release
> >Directive (2001/18 - Recital 16).
> >The Directive provides for very basic environmental liability
> >protection. At the moment it is highly unlikely that a biotechnology
> >company or person using GMOs would be required to pay for
> >remediation of any environmental damage that may arise unless they
> >were proven to be negligent. As a result, either damage will not be
> >repaired or the state will have to pay.
> >To conclude:
> >The arguments and list of topics that warrant argument will go on.
> >But GM crops advocates are not the only ones who have science on
> >their side. They have the science of knowing how to make these
> >transgenic plants, but not the environmental or medical science to
> >give solid assurances as to their safety. At the moment GM companies
> >in the US are being sued by farmers and food producers who have had
> >their livelihoods damaged by contamination. Here in Europe the GM
> >companies are threatening to sue governments who set tight
> >guidelines about requirements for production (such as not having
> >conventional crops that may be contaminated nearby), because they
> >are losing time in getting patent income. At least the lawyers are
> >doing well out of GM.
> >Con Traas
> >
> >
> >-----Original Message-----
> >From: [email protected]
> >[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Behalf Of Steve Demuth
> >Sent: 12 March 2007 02:37
> >To: Apple-Crop
> >Subject: RE: Apple-Crop: Time article
> >
> >
> >Arthur,
> >
> >"Silliness" was a poor word choice on my part.  It conveys nothing
> >except an derision of it's object.  I apologize.
> >
> >To be more precise, what I object to in the trajectory of the organic
> >movement, is its willingness, if not outright eagerness, to let
> >anti-science emotionalism into a process that, of all things, should
> >be evidence based.  Thus we have a prohibition on genetically
> >engineered plants, when sensible genetic modification could be an
> >enormous boon to organics, and ecologically sound agriculture.  Thus
> >we have a blanket prohibition on chemical pesticides, rather than a
> >considered weighing of benefit vs. risk.  I just can't get behind
> >this kind of thinking.
> >
> >
> >
> >At 06:50 PM 3/11/2007, you wrote:
> > >I could agree with most of what you say about organic foods, but I'm
> > >not sure that what
> > >you regard as silliness is the same as the silliness I observe.   In
> > >conventional food
> > >standards it  is far more silly ---and dangerous to health---than
> > >what goes on in
> > >organics.   I speak as an organic inspector and author of Harvey v
> > >Veneman.  Most of my
> > >life was spent working in conventional apple orchards where the
> > >prevailing view is that
> > >Guthion---or whatever---is perfectly safe because the manufacturers
>
=== message truncated ===


On another topic, the federal law governing organic foods was recently amended by lobbyists hired by some manufacturers. This will allow synthetic ingredients to be added to organic-labeled foods. If this is important to you, please visit my website, www.RestoreOrganicLaw.org


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Steve Demuth
Decorah, Iowa

"Various forms of religious madness are quite common in the United States ..." -- Alexis de Tocqueville





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