Hello David.
Thanks for the responses and for the numbers below.

I have to agree that 4.10 and 4.4 specially should always be treated with higher importance than the waiting-list. My initial concern was that three years were maybe too much, but looking at these numbers it doesn't seem to. Obviously it will always depend on usage rate and I agree 4.10 is expected to increase reasonably over the next years so when this policy is triggered we will have a chance to review how the replenishment will work. On the other hand I have some concern about a possible deadlock or freeze in the waiting list as I see it as a minimum fair chance for newcomers to get some space the in a similar way all others had in the past.

So I think your proposal based on the numbers below make sense.

Regards
Fernando Frediani

On 27/12/2019 00:25, David Farmer wrote:

    - With regards returning any other returned, reclaimed or revoke
    resources that were not from the reserved pools to them, although
    I see
    the good intent of it I find it difficult to support it as we
    don't know
    numbers related to this at the present. The numbers of assignments
    from
    these reserved pools, the amount available and the forecast for it
    are
    necessary for this analysis.
    Also it seems that three-year supply a long time for it to be
    kept. If
    the numbers mentioned point to the direction of the need of
    replenishing
    for these pools then the it may be necessary to review and discuss
    the
    supply time better. Without this information I cannot support this
    part
    of the proposal yet.


The idea of this policy is to have a default action of replenishing these reserved pools only when or if they get down to a three-year or less supply. Until then, other recovered resources go to the waiting list. Even then the idea is to only replenish them to or maintain a three year supply in the reserved pools, any resources recovered beyond that would still go to the waiting list.

Without this policy, when or if these reserved pools get low, we will just let them run out unless we have a consensus for a policy to change things at that time. However, I would like default action to be to replenish the reserved pools when or if they get low unless there is consensus at that time to let them run out, requiring policy action at that time if we want them to let them run out.

As for the current status of these pools; the following is from the ARIN 44 meeting report, at the beginning of November, in response to a question during the discussion of ARIN-2019-17;

    John Sweeting:  John Sweeting, ARIN staff. I think I'm going to
    answer Joe's question. So in the 4.10 pool, the IP pool -- sorry,
    Cathy -- there are 15,727 /24s left. 657 have been used over the
    time since it was implemented. And it puts about an average
    between 10 and 15 a month.

    On the 4.4, there's 123 issued. 389 left and about 1.5 per month.
    So maybe 15, 18 a year.

4.10 pool;
   15,727 /24s left
   15 /24s a month
   This is more than 80 years worth at that rate of use, but I expect the rate of use will increase for this pool.

4.4 pool;
   389 /24s left
   1.5 /24s a month
   This is more than 20 years worth at that rate of use.

So this policy is not expected to have any effect for many years unless there is a dramatic increase in the use of these pools.

    Regards
    Fernando

    On 24/12/2019 11:41, ARIN wrote:
    >
    > On 19 December 2019, the ARIN Advisory Council (AC) accepted
    > "ARIN-prop-281: Reserved Pool Replenishment" as a Draft Policy.
    >
    > Draft Policy ARIN-2019-21 is below and can be found at:
    >
    > https://www.arin.net/participate/policy/drafts/2019_21/
    >
    > You are encouraged to discuss all Draft Policies on PPML. The AC
    will
    > evaluate the discussion in order to assess the conformance of this
    > draft policy with ARIN's Principles of Internet number resource
    policy
    > as stated in the Policy Development Process (PDP). Specifically,
    these
    > principles are:
    >
    > * Enabling Fair and Impartial Number Resource Administration
    > * Technically Sound
    > * Supported by the Community
    >
    > The PDP can be found at:
    > https://www.arin.net/participate/policy/pdp/
    >
    > Draft Policies and Proposals under discussion can be found at:
    > https://www.arin.net/participate/policy/drafts/
    >
    > Regards,
    >
    > Sean Hopkins
    > Policy Analyst
    > American Registry for Internet Numbers (ARIN)
    >
    >
    > Draft Policy ARIN-2019-21: Reserved Pool Replenishment
    >
    > Problem Statement:
    >
    > While the current level of resources in the reserve pools
    created in
    > Sections 4.4 and 4.10 presently seem more than adequate for their
    > intended purposes. Nevertheless, even these well-resourced pools
    will
    > eventually run out. Therefore, we should make arrangements for
    their
    > replenishment, if or when necessary.
    >
    > Policy Statement:
    >
    > Add a new subsection in IPv4 General Principles, Section 4.1;
    >
    > 4.1.X Reserved Pool Replenishment
    >
    > Any resources allocated from a reserved pool created in Sections
    4.4
    > or 4.10, or any other reserved pools created in the future, that
    are
    > returned, reclaimed, or revoked will be returned to the reserved
    pool
    > they were originally allocated from, regardless of the current
    level
    > of each pool. Further, any other resources returned, reclaimed, or
    > revoked will be prioritized for the replenishment of any
    reserved pool
    > that falls below a running three-year supply, which is based on the
    > previous three years of allocations from each pool.
    >
    > Timetable for Implementation: Immediate
    >
    > Anything Else:
    >
    > ARIN Staff should regularly report on the levels and projected
    > run-times for each reserved pool and immediately report when any
    > reserved pool falls below a three-year running supply.
    >
    > A three-year running supply was chosen to provide the ARIN Policy
    > Community adequate time to react through policy, as deemed
    appropriate
    > at that time, to an imminent run out event for one of the
    reserved pools.
    > _______________________________________________
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