My take:
Asbury Partners will only hurt their own properties (Convention
Hall / Paramount Theatre) with condos built across the street. That
will be a total disaster imo. I can see people complaining about the
noise after 9pm on nights with a show; people complaining about
someone leaving a beer can on their lawn or doing something even
worse; and people complaining about the parking situation. It's a
disaster waiting to happen.
I think MM recognizes that for Convention Hall/Paramount to work they
NEED to have a mini restaurant row near the facilities. The Wonder
Bar plays a role along with Salt River Grill and Cabanas. The three
are very different restaurants and all would attract people before
and after the show. I'm betting that MM would rather see something
like the Wonder Bar remain and either build a second restaurant next
to it or have that be a parking area.
Why else would they spend money rennovating the Paramount? So a
bunch of condo owners could complain and limit the type/amount of
shows they could do?
Personally, I don't understand why Asbury Park can not simply say no
more condo development until the existing condo projects are finished
and sold. Why have even more of a glut in a down market?
On Oct 2, 2007, at 7:11 AM, justifiedright wrote:
Occam's Razor - the simplest explanation is usually the right one.
I see 3 entities whose current PRIMARY interests simply don't coincide
at this moment in time. Nothing untoward or ill-meaning is going on.
Pat, Lance and Debbie: Primary interest - Want to continue to invest
in WB to make it better, so they need a long term lease to protect the
investment; certainly can't agree to be out on 60 day's notice.
Conclusion: Must have 5 year lease.
Madison Marquette: Primary Interest - to buy the whole block to
build condos; but not right now because real estate isn't selling and
financing is strict. Have to wait. Not going to buy the block now and
cover carrying costs/potential liabilities just to save WB. If they
gave WB a 5 year lease, they wouldn't be able to develop it 1 year
from now, 2 years, etc.
Conclusion: 5 year lease contrary to their primary interests.
Asbury Partners: Primary Interests - (Mirror opposite of MM) They
want to sell the whole block to condo developer. Now suffering
carrying costs and potential liabilities. Won't give WB a 5 year
lease, because the length of the lease will hold up a sale to a sub-
developer for exactly that long.
Conclusion: 5 year lease contrary to their primary interests.
I know it feels better to ascribe all sorts of Machiavellian reasons
including class warfare, social planning, etc. all to create a
villain, but things don't run philosophically in real estate.
Developers aren't part of a secret society to create a new world
order. It's one parcel at a time – and how much can they make on that
parcel. Simple.
To make a deal, quite simply, all sides need the their financial
incentives to coincide. They don't right now.
LAST HOPE: The secondary incentives: Asbury Partners will suffer
increased carrying costs when the WB closes. To them and MM the block
will look terrible, affecting the rest of the beachfront.
Perhaps a last minute deal is struck as a bow to secondary incentives,
but make no mistake - they won't greatly compromise the primary
incentive to keep WB open. Larry can find someone to open a bar there
when WB leaves to cover carry costs if he has to, so the secondary
incentives are not that strong.
It's business.
Unfortunately, we don't get what we want. It's not the first time
for any of us.
There are parts of the redevelopment we would all do differently. I
guess that's part of being a diverse community – it never looks like
one person's perfect place.
If many of you were in charge things would look differently. If I
were in charge the Casino complex would have been knocked down and
replaced with a much larger, world class facility.
Maybe WB gets a temp space elsewhere and moves back to the beach in a
few years, when all involved have similar current interests.
