____________________________________
From: r...@tristatestormwatch.com
To: asburyst...@aol.com
Sent: 2/1/2011 8:33:20 P.M. Eastern Standard Time
Subj: Evening Weather Update - February 1st
Approaching StormFREEZING DRIZZLE ALL AREAS THIS EVENING
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO
RAIN COASTAL SECTIONS
HEAVY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INTERIOR SECTIONS AND NORTHERN NJ MAKING FOR
DIFFICULT COMMUTE
Membership Feedback
FEBRUARY 1ST - 7PM
Temperatures have slipped below freezing throughout the entire area.
Freezing drizzle is also occurring but with no significant precipitation until
later tonight, roadways should remain just wet even as colder and
elevated receive a light coating of ice.
North of I-78, the temperature has remained below freezing all day so
icing occurred this morning and conditions will remain slippery throughout the
evening.
As heavier precipitation moves in later tonight, the warmer air returns.
For all coastal sections and the southern 1/4 of NJ, freezing rain will
change to all rain before morning. For interior sections from just north of
Philly, through interior Monmouth, interior northern Ocean, northern
Burlington, Mercer and Middlesex, freezing rain will continue through the
morning commute before changing to rain with icy conditions likely.
North of these counties through the I-78 corridor and NYC, icing will
continue through mid-morning with hazardous conditions likely along with the
threat of some power outages.
North of I-80 and up to the NY/NJ border, heavy icing is likely with
travel difficult through much of the daylight hours.
All precipitation will end around Noon, so it will be moving in and out
rather quickly.
Cold air follows Thursday and Friday. A storm system will be moving up
along the coast on Saturday, but there is very little cold air in the area
and no cold high pressure to our north, so this could very well be rain on
the coast with a wintry mix inland.
Additional rain early next week followed by a brief blast of bitter cold.
It looks like the prevailing weather pattern has definitely changed and
it is the midwest and Ohio Valley states turn to enjoy the best (or worst)
that Winter 2010-11 has to offer. Our area will be on the east side of the
prevailing storm track which means rain when there is storminess. How
long does this pattern last? Probably until we get a return to the high
latitude blocking that we saw in December and early January. When that
happens is anyone's guess at this point.
FEBRUARY 1ST - 7AM
Temperatures are above freezing along immediate coastal sections of New
Jersey. Inland sections remain below freezing. As anticipated in last
evening's update precipitation is very light with the exception of extreme
northern NJ (north of I-80) where snow and sleet will fall and accumulate 2
to
4 inches.
Tuesday afternoon and evening will see some drizzle which will likely
freeze on colder surfaces over inland sections.
Late tonight, heavy precipitation moves in. Temperatures will have
cooled a bit so this precipitation will likely start as sleet or freezing rain
for south and coastal sections; however, these areas should change to rain
relatively quickly.
Along Route 1 and points north and west, the icing will be more prolonged
before a change to rain and the commute on Wednesday morning will likely
be quite slippery.
North of I-80 and towards the NY/NJ border, heavy icing is a possibility
well into Wednesday morning. Parts of this area may never go above
freezing so travel will be difficult and loss of power could be an issue.
In and around the NYC area, there will also be icing concerns but with
temps only slightly below freezing, treated roadways should remain just wet.
Precipitation will be heavy Wednesday morning but it all ends by midday.
A couple of cold days will follow the storm on Thursday and Friday.
A coastal storm threatens for Saturday but by the then the cold air will
have retreated to the north and east, so there could be a wet snow/rain mix
from this storm.
There are some signs that the pattern may be changing to a more
traditional La Nina pattern which favors more storminess in the middle part
of the
country and a "dry when cold/warm when wet" pattern in the east. We'll see
if this is something that is consistency advertised by the forecast
guidance in the coming days.
JANUARY 31ST - 9PM
The guidance this evening is a bit warmer for the first part of the storm
and a bit lighter with the precip over central and southern sections. So
those area may get away with only a light amount of sleet. I do think
that coastal sections will be warm enough so that any precip during the day on
Tuesday is rain...and even that should be relatively light.
For tonight and tomorrow, going to revise the forecast to indicate an
accumulation of less than an inch of snow/sleet for south and coastal
sections. 1 to 2 inches in central NJ and 2 to 4 inches north of I-80.
Will continue to look at the second piece of the storm coming in Tuesday
night and Wednesday, but my feeling is that this is also going to trend
warmer and the areas of icing and snow may be shifted to the north by 30 miles
or so but that does not diminish the threat for heavy icing if you live
in inland northern NJ.
JANUARY 31ST
A very deep trough over the southwest US will send an impulse eastward
tonight. Snow should develop over all sections sometime after midnight but
before Tuesday morning. Snow will change to sleet early Tuesday morning
over south NJ and all coastal sections. Sleet will continue until midday for
most of interior central NJ and all of northern NJ. All precipitation
ends Tuesday afternoon.
Accumulations of snow and sleet by midday Tuesday look to be in the 1 to 2
inch range for south and coastal sections. 2 to 4 inches in central NJ
with 3 to 6 inches possible north of I-80.
Meanwhile, a major storm will be moving across the Ohio Valley states
Tuesday night. Precipitation redevelops late Tuesday night. A bit of cold
air will return over the area behind the Tuesday morning impulse, so many
areas will start out as sleet. Sleet will change to rain from southeast to
northwest., but the changeover line will be slow to progress northward for
areas north and west of Route 1. As you move farther into northern NJ,
snow will change to sleet; however, precipitation may remain of the frozen
variety once north of I-80.
So for details on Tuesday night and Wednesday: For areas south of I-195
and coastal Monmouth County - Sleet late Tuesday night changes to heavy
rain Wednesday morning and ends in the early afternoon. Close call on the
Wednesday commute as the changeover will be right around that time period.
Route 1 corridor - Sleet will be more prolonged with significant icing
until a change to rain around mid-morning.
North of I-78 and NYC area - Starts as snow, then a lot of sleet before
rain around late morning. 2 to 4 inches of snow and sleet. Significant
icing. Precip ends by mid-afternoon.
North of I-80 to NY/NJ border - Snow changes to sleet and freezing rain,
probably no change to rain. 4 to 8 inches of snow and sleet.
Interior NY state/I-84 corridor - All snow....1 to 2 feet
Will update as necessary.
Potential for another storm on Saturday.
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Steve Herman, Asbury Tower, 1701 Ocean Ave
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