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>It is further complicated by the fact that the election system is
rigged in such a way, that the "National" party bosses rule how their stooges at
the state level shall >behave. The Assam legislators' election and existence
is entirely dependent on the discretion of their bosses and the money bags from
Dilli.
The trick is to have a regional
party in Assam (without any bosses in Delhi) whom people of Assam can trust more
than national parties.
RB
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, January 18, 2006 11:01
AM
Subject: Re: [Assam] Reforms - The
CONCLUSION
Utpal:
>That can be achieved only through an overground political movement .
But such changes are not possible without making constitutional
amendments
*** That is where the problem lies.
The Catch 22 is in Assam and the NE's clout, or more precisely
their lack of it, in Delhi, where it boils down to numbers. It is further
complicated by the fact that the election system is rigged in such a way, that
the "National" party bosses rule how their stooges at the state level shall
behave. The Assam legislators' election and existence is entirely dependent on
the discretion of their bosses and the money bags from Dilli.
>But to force the Parliament pass a bill that makes the first step
towards >Federalism will take a lot of effort and ground work at the
National Level >(because of the Number game we need to play)
*** That is why to accept the conditions imposed by the Indian
constitution is a non-starter . To accept its sanctity, is to admit defeat
even before one starts. That is why to assert a desire for reforms,
for positive change, therefore, is an untenable notion. And explains your
observation:
>But opposition from the intelligentsia for a meaningful and
substantive >government reforms is what is difficult to fathom.
c-da
At 3:54 PM +0000 1/18/06, Malabika Brahma wrote:
Chandan da,
>> Similarly on that segment of
Assam's establishment and intelligentsia, who is
>> opposed to meaningful and
substantive governmental reforms
>> and regaining of controls
over its resources, either willfully or unwittingly.
Opposition from Assam's establishment I can
very well understand. But opposition from the intelligentsia for a
meaningful and substantive government reforms is what is difficult to
fathom.
>> One such effort would be by
offering ideas for a reformed Assam governance,
>> based on real ( asc opposed to the
desi kind) democratic concepts and principles.
That can be achieved only through an
overground political movement . But such changes are not possible without
making constitutional amendments and consititutional amendments are not
possible until and unless we build up a national level consensus. Such
changes are possible only in a truly Federal India (as opposed to the
Federalism Desi kind).
But to force the Parliament pass a bill that
makes the first step towards Federalism will take a lot of effort and ground
work at the National Level (because of the Number game we need to play) .
Such ground work can only be accomplished by active involvement of liberal,
visionary and articulate citizens of North East and that is where we need
the likes of Prof Sanjiv Baruah, Mamoni Roisom Goswami or journalist Sanjoy
Hazarika. They understand the problems faced by North East because of a GOI
that is entirely dominated by the Cow Belters and but neverthless they have
earned some respect and credibility amongst the Think Tankers at all India
level. That places them in a position from where they can influence the
liberal intelligentsia all over the country for the much needed reforms to
the so called Desi Demokrasy. And I think some of the more liberal
educational institutes like the JNU or Calcutta University are good places
to start the crusade for constitutional reforms.
Unless we can win the Number Game, we can
never force GOI to make constitutional amendments to achive the kind of
federalism that will ensure an exploitation free North East.
Utpal
Chan Mahanta
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Hi Santanu:
Of all the analyses, yours make the most sense, and I agree
with most of it. I also was not sure how Utpal's points correlate with the
ones you make. But be that as it may, allow me to chime in
here:
As I see it, the GOI thinks of
negotiations with ULFA as basically a process of waiting till the latter
is ready to surrender - the only talk it wants is to check out if they
are ready for that - and if that ever happens, they have a
stdandard face saving formula that they will offer - bits of
special powers for the state, maybe inner line permit, lots of central
funds (to fatten the leaders) and a political process to return them to
power in the state elections.
>As I see it, the ULFA has no reason to accept such an
offer at this point.
**** I will have to agree with what you observe above. I
harbor similar concerns. The Naga non-negotiations and the stand-still is
an example of things to expect. However what is unknown here is
whether ULFA will submit itself to a prolonged period of non-ability to
put any pressure on GoI, by resumption of violence again that is, if the
talks do not progress. That would be an unfortunate outcome, in which
Assam will be the loser. It therefore behooves the people of Assam--at
least those who want to see an end to the hostilities with some essential
and measurable gains for Assam, to put political/public opinion pressures
on GoI . Similarly on that segment of Assam's establishment and
intelligentsia, who is opposed to meaningful and substantive governmental
reforms
and regaining of controls over its resources, either
willfully or unwittingly.
________________________________________________________________________________
*** I wrote the above on Monday, on my way back to St.Louis.
Since then, we have already seen things changing, like ULFA's notice to
OIL ( or was it ONGC? ), and an editorial in the Sentinel of yesterday's,
in which it criticizes ( rightly, for a change) the
ghee-belly-governor-general's 'bad-cop' talk, contradicting Delhi's
willingness to engage in talks with ULFA for a negotiated settlement of
the conflict. While it could be given the benefit of the doubt that
Dilli's right hand does not know what its left is doing, a frequent
phenomenon, I will be loathe to accept it. It looks more and more like
that ol' "good-cop, bad-cop" routine. Does ULFA see the handwriting on the
wall? I will have to believe they do, very well.
And it does not bode well.
________________________________________________________________________________
Like we discussed earlier , here arises the importance of a
concerted political effort both on ULFA's part as well as that segment of
Assam which is sympathetic to ULFA's efforts on behalf of Assam, as an
essential concurrent movement.
Reluctantly, I am resigned to the notion that the tiny segment
that is beholden to Delhi's interests should be ignored as irrelevant and
a complete waste of effort.
But those of us who do care, have an important role to play:
To help move the efforts for a negotiated along, by mobilizing public
support. One such effort would be by offering ideas for a reformed Assam
governance, based on real ( asc opposed to the desi kind) democratic
concepts and principles.
c-da
At 10:18 PM -0600 1/13/06, Roy, Santanu wrote:
Utpal:
I agree with your
vision.
The way I see it - in the short run, there is almost nothing
substantive that one can get the GOI to accede to in terms of effective
decentralization of power or plebscite or any other adjustment to the
political relationship between Delhi and Assam. The babus and polticians
that run Delhi are under almost no pressure at all.
Chandan-da
suggested that the pressure might come from the fact that New Delhi
wants to look like a big world power and carry international prestige
& it can't do that with an armed rebellion and suppression of
liberty in one part of its country. I actually don't think that India
has any such ambition. India want to be China in terms of international
leverage. China routinely suppresses even peaceful peasant movements by
brute force. International power follows from aggregate economic and
military might. It does not require internal democracy or liberty.
Countries like today's India, China, current Russia, Iran, Turkey are
not very civil (I know I am going to be lynched for saying this)- they
do not aim to project their power through moral superiority of their
internal social order.
The only way a rebellion in Assam would threaten India's
ascendency would be if it made India look unstable. But like Chechnya or
even the Kurdish border in Turkey, Assam is almost a detached fringe of
Indian society. It cannot destabilize India as of
now.
Therefore, I see no closure in
sight.
I also agree with you that hope lies in history. None of us
concievably imagine what the geopolitical map of the world will look
like 20 or 30 years from now. To take advantage of historical
opportunities (like your third world war), one needs to have a strong
civil movement at the grassroot level - a cohesive nationality formation
process. That is much harder than armed insurrection.
Santanu.
-----Original
Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] on behalf of Malabika
Brahma
Sent: Sat 1/14/2006 10:57 AM
To: assam@assamnet.org
Subject: Re: [Assam] Reforms - The
CONCLUSION
Ram da asked some very practical questions. We
all know that the GOI is controlled by politicians who gives a damn if
Assam or NE bleeds to death.
Here is the fact (as stressed by
Santanu )
Those who control GOI are
politicians who care less for the people of Assam and NE and care less
for the lives of soldiers that die in NE. So achieving independence
through an armed struggle is next to
impossible.
The only way independence can be
achieved are:
1. By making constitutional
amendment to include "instrument of secession" in Indian constitution
and influencing upon the GOI to hold a plesbicite in Assam/NE and hope
that majority of the people vote for secession. But this can not be
achieved unless there is move to build a consensus in the National
level.
2. By hoping that a 3rd world war
breaks out and GOI finds it impossible to manage the present political
India. Actually in my opinion 2nd world war is what helped India
win its independence from the British. It became too expensive for
Britain to maintain its colonies because of its involvement in the
war. This again is highly unlikely.
May
be Chandan da or Mike da knows some other Practical Means of achieving
independence that we are missing.
That's why I
think "Independence of Assam/NE is excellent to have but not possible to
achieve". So why build castles in the air
?
But yes, if we can force GOI to hold a
plesbicite, that will be the greatest victory. What will be the outcome
of the plesbicite , is left to speculation of
course.
But one thing we have to
understand, for Government of India , ULFA and NDFB may not count,
but for Assam and NE, they are our boys after all. When one
ULFA/NDFB member gets eliminated, one of my brother or sister is getting
eliminated.
Utpal
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