Good points Santanu. I am also hoping that China will refrain from embarking on it because the worse impacted victim of such steps by Beijing will be B'Desh, who would be harder hit by a dramatically lessened dry season flow of the Brahmaputra. China has cordial relationships with B'Desh and hopefully find it counteerproductive to hurt and antagonize B'Desh, who is bound to take it to the UN, even if India does not want to rock the boat on account of other interests.
c-da At 11:41 AM -0600 11/12/03, Roy, Santanu wrote: >Chandan-da: > >What concerns me most is the fact that the Chinese control of waterflow >will be used as a political weapon in its disputes and generally troubled >relationship with the Indian government. And a punishment imposed by China >on the Brahmaputra front might be quite ignored by the Indian government - >like the other problems of the region. > >Perhaps, the saving grace will be that Beijing will see through this and >therefore not choose to fight with this tool - (what would be the point of >hitting where it Delhi does not hurt?) Just thinking aloud. > >Santanu. > >> -----Original Message----- >> From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >> [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Behalf Of Chan Mahanta >> Sent: Wednesday, November 12, 2003 9:02 AM >> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >> Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >> Subject: [Assam] Chinese Plans to Dam The Tsangpo >> >> >> The following article appeared in the AT of yesterday ( Nov 11, 2003). >> >> >> We have been aware of this for a few years now, but increasingly China >> seems more and more serious about the proposal, which is indeed very >> ominous. >> >> >> One might think that the Central Govt./ Ext. Affairs Ministry >> would have >> jumped on the issue long ago. But even if we accept the fact >> that people >> did not take these news reports seriously enough as rumors, >> one would have >> to conclude it is high time it is being done. From the tepid >> responses to >> reporters from the minister of water resources, it does not >> seem to have >> ignited a fire under anyone in the Center as yet. But of >> course there would >> be a problem for it to raise its voice internationally, or >> even nationally >> for domestic consumption, because of the Center's own >> cavalier approach to >> River-linking, and which which dismissed Banglades's concerns as mere >> over-reactions. Here-in lies the dilemma of embaking on thoughtless >> programs and ventures on account of narrow self-interests and/or >> expediencies, just like the West has been finding out in >> recent decades. >> >> Having said that, I have a question for those in Assam Net and in the >> [EMAIL PROTECTED] list who are far more knowledgeable >> than I am on >> these matters: >> >> Let us for a moment ignore the environmental ramifications of a >> massive >> Chinese dam at the hair-pin bend of the Tsangpo befiore >> it enters >> Arunachal. Let us also ignore the ramifications of of >> a catastrophic >> seismic event like the 1950 earthquake -- listed in >> the Encyclopedia >> Britannica as one of the seven largest earthquakes in >> recorded history, >> which epi-centered close there-to and which lifted up >> th Brahmaputra >> river bottom in Assam by 15 feet (??) in places -- on >> a huge dam >> or impoundment. >> >> 1: WOULD such a dam help alleviate floods and erosion >> in Assam as is suggested by the Chinese hydrologist >> quoted in the news report? >> >> Unfortunately the claim might seem to make sense. Unlike a dam on the >> Brahmaputra near the B'Desh border which would innundate vast >> populated >> areas and agricultural land; flooding could actually get >> worse upstream due >> to the relentless silting which would be accelerated by a >> slowing down of >> the river. >> >> However Assam's flooding PROBABLY happens not nearly as much >> because of the >> Tsangpo waters coming down from the snow-melt waters in >> Tibet, but from the >> monsoon rains from the southern side of the Himalayas carried >> down by the >> tributaries. >> >> But silting of the B could slow, because the Tibetan silt >> would be trapped >> by the Chinese dam and reservoir(S). >> >> >> 2: Since Assam uses little IRRIGATION water NOW >> ( if any at >> all) >> and there is no commercial navigation to speak >> of, would it be >> reasonable to conclude that a reduced flow of >> water on the >> Brahmaputra during the dry season due to the >> Chinese dam, won't >> really impact the economy of Assam that >> much but will hit >> the B'Desh economy real hard because they are >> so dependent >> on the rivers for their survival? >> >> Should that get B'Desh really concerned about Chinese designs? >> >> >> Would appreciate feedback. >> >> >> cm > >_______________________________________________ >Assam mailing list >[EMAIL PROTECTED] >http://pikespeak.uccs.edu/mailman/listinfo/assam > >To unsubscribe or change options: >http://pikespeak.uccs.edu/mailman/options/assam _______________________________________________ Assam mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://pikespeak.uccs.edu/mailman/listinfo/assam To unsubscribe or change options: http://pikespeak.uccs.edu/mailman/options/assam
