The following article appeared in the AT of yesterday ( Nov 11, 2003).
We have been aware of this for a few years now, but increasingly China
seems more and more serious about the proposal, which is indeed very
ominous.
One might think that the Central Govt./ Ext. Affairs Ministry would have
jumped on the issue long ago. But even if we accept the fact that people
did not take these news reports seriously enough as rumors, one would have
to conclude it is high time it is being done. From the tepid responses to
reporters from the minister of water resources, it does not seem to have
ignited a fire under anyone in the Center as yet. But of course there would
be a problem for it to raise its voice internationally, or even nationally
for domestic consumption, because of the Center's own cavalier approach to
River-linking, and which which dismissed Banglades's concerns as mere
over-reactions. Here-in lies the dilemma of embaking on thoughtless
programs and ventures on account of narrow self-interests and/or
expediencies, just like the West has been finding out in recent decades.
Having said that, I have a question for those in Assam Net and in the
[EMAIL PROTECTED] list who are far more knowledgeable than I am on
these matters:
Let us for a moment ignore the environmental ramifications of a
massive
Chinese dam at the hair-pin bend of the Tsangpo befiore it enters
Arunachal. Let us also ignore the ramifications of of a catastrophic
seismic event like the 1950 earthquake -- listed in the Encyclopedia
Britannica as one of the seven largest earthquakes in recorded history,
which epi-centered close there-to and which lifted up th Brahmaputra
river bottom in Assam by 15 feet (??) in places -- on a huge dam
or impoundment.
1: WOULD such a dam help alleviate floods and erosion
in Assam as is suggested by the Chinese hydrologist
quoted in the news report?
Unfortunately the claim might seem to make sense. Unlike a dam on the
Brahmaputra near the B'Desh border which would innundate vast populated
areas and agricultural land; flooding could actually get worse upstream due
to the relentless silting which would be accelerated by a slowing down of
the river.
However Assam's flooding PROBABLY happens not nearly as much because of the
Tsangpo waters coming down from the snow-melt waters in Tibet, but from the
monsoon rains from the southern side of the Himalayas carried down by the
tributaries.
But silting of the B could slow, because the Tibetan silt would be trapped
by the Chinese dam and reservoir(S).
2: Since Assam uses little IRRIGATION water NOW ( if any at
all)
and there is no commercial navigation to speak of, would it be
reasonable to conclude that a reduced flow of water on the
Brahmaputra during the dry season due to the Chinese dam, won't
really impact the economy of Assam that much but will hit
the B'Desh economy real hard because they are so dependent
on the rivers for their survival?
Should that get B'Desh really concerned about Chinese designs?
Would appreciate feedback.
cm
********************************************************************************
Dam will help tame NE floods
>From Kalyan Barooah
NEW DELHI, Nov 10 - The news of China planning to divert the Brahmaputra
river may have sent alarm bells ringing in India and Bangladesh, but
Chinese experts claim that construction of a dam in Tibetan plateau would
tame the mighty river saving the two countries the destruction caused
annually by floods. This was the opinion of a Chinese water expert,
Professor Chen Chuanyu, the chief planner and one of the leading water
experts of the People's Republic of China. He told German TV ZDF that China
wanted to utilise the upper part of the Brahmaputra for a giant
hydroelectric project and for a gigantic irrigation project. As a
side-effect, the stream that is more than 3000 kms (1860 miles) long and
has claimed innumerable human lives through floods in the delta in
Bangladesh, could be tamed by regulating its upper course.
The Jarlung Tsangpo river which arises on the Tibetan high plateau at an
altitude of 5600 meters (18,373 feet) out of three tributaries for 1250 km
(776 miles) in Tibet offers an ideal site for the intervention. This is a
loop, a hairpin bend. First, the river turns north, then sharply southeast
and proceeds to a further turn towards the southwest to approach itself at
a distance of 40 km (25 miles) before it reaches the Indian States of
Arunachal Pradesh and Assam.
Prof. Chen says the potential for his giant project is in the gradient of
2400meters (7872 feet) between the anti-parallel running river sections.
The plan is to divert the Tsangpo at the loop with a 15 km (9.3 miles) long
tunnel drilled into the Himalayas and then connected to pipelines and
canals. The planners estimate the capacity of several hydropower stations
to be 40,000 megawatts.
This would provide enough electricity to pump the precious liquid over a
distance of 800-km (497 miles) to northwest China, which is largely barren
due to its arid climate. For this, other rivers east of the Tsangpo could
also be tapped, he told the German TV programme 'Die Welt' (The World). The
production of energy would probably not benefit China directly since high
voltage lines would lose a significant proportion of their voltage along
the enormous distance. However, Prof. Chen points out the economic and
political benefit of the geopolitical giant project: sale of the excess
electricity to the closer neighbouring countries such as India, Bangladesh
and Myanmar may well be possible, as he emphasised.
As reported earlier, India is also keen to adopt the same approach by
offering to develop the giant project jointly so as to reap the benefit of
the mighty river. But the German TV reported that since the Brahmaputra
alone draws on an area of 670,000 square km (258,000 square miles)
worldwide, protests by environmentalists appear unavoidable. Besides the
project might clash with India's own river-linking plans.
Cheng Shenqui, deputy director of the Commission for National Resources,
was quoted as emphasising that the project is of such a magnitude that many
of its consequences cannot be foreseen yet. "We don't know anything about
the ecological consequences on the high plateau of Tibet, on South- and
East Asia, and even on the Earth." He admitted.
Meanwhile, reports have it that the project will be carried out over the
next 11 years, and includes creating 352,000 hectares area of trees and
grassland, and the preparation of sapling cultivation bases. It may be
recalled here that the People's Daily, the official Chinese newspaper on
July 17 reported that China planned to conduct a feasibility study in
October on the construction of a major hydropower project on the Yarlung
Zangbo river, in the Tibet Autonomous Region.
The China Water Conservancy and Hydropower Planning and Designing
Institute, the organiser of the feasibility study, has sent an expert team
to the area for preliminary work between late June and early July. The
Chinese section of the river, 2,057 km long, boasts a water energy reserve
of about 100 million kilowatts, or one-sixth of the country's total,
ranking second behind the Yangtze river.
The location for the possible hydropower plant is the U-shaped turn of the
river in the southeastern part of Tibet. The river drops by 2,755 metres in
the 500 km-long 'U' section, leading to a water energy reserve of about 68
million kilowatts, or one-tenth of the national total. But
environmentalists in Europe have added another angle to the controversy by
claiming that perennial floods in India and Bangladesh were due to massive
deforestation by Chinese in Tibet. The China has since banned cutting and
felling of trees in Tibet but the destruction appears to have been complete.
An environmentalist group claimed that policy decisions regarding
deforestation on the Tibetan plateau has had serious implications for
countries in South Asia, such as India and Bangladesh, where flooding was
frequent and often devastating. They attributed it to the soil erosion
brought on by deforestation in Tibet.
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