Mark Newton wrote:
Now, think about this:  If we can agree that writing about this stuff
is a worthwhile exercise, what's the better investment in effort?
Waiting for an actual accident to happen where someone really gets hurt
and writing about it post-mortem, or making use of the fact that we
already know what the accident is going to be and writing about it
proactively instead?
I hate to say this, but this is not really going to help much.

We certainly know that, in our current mode of operation, people will spin in and others will have mid airs. Writing about these possibilities in the magazine is not going to stop this happening - because clearly it has not yet done so. Writing about real accidents in the magazine does have a very direct impact as it makes the lessons more personal: I know - I wrote about my experience smashing Alice's canopy (which if I had hit the canopy surrounds rather than the Perspex might easily have been a fatal) and I still have people speaking to me about that article and how it helps them to remember to check their straps during a flight, not just at the beginning!

More important though is that there are 'fashions' in accidents: fashions that can be detected before they start to become visible as accidents. These fashions are visible in the incident trends - see my previous post in this thread.

If we have incident data and we can see the 'fashion' (trend), then writing about an accident waiting to happen becomes really pertinent. Without that data we are simply stabbing in the dark and hoping we kill the beast that is lurking there before it kills us.

-- 
Robert Hart					[EMAIL PROTECTED]
+61 (0)438 385 533			  http://www.hart.wattle.id.au


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