Why not speculate on a real market? Peter Sztorc proposed a sidechain that
could be implemented now using Blockstream's method:
http://www.truthcoin.info/blog/win-win-blocksize/
--
MC
On Tue, Aug 4, 2015 at 8:08 PM -0700, "Eric Lombrozo via bitcoin-dev"
<bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
Rather than speculating on fake markets, why don’t we use theory, empirical
data, and engineering to fix the damn problems?
On Aug 4, 2015, at 11:28 AM, Owen via bitcoin-dev
<bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
Given there is no money at stake in these prediction games, it is no surprise
that the results are implausible.
On August 4, 2015 10:22:19 AM EDT, Anthony Towns via bitcoin-dev
<bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
On 4 August 2015 at 01:22, Gavin Andresen via bitcoin-dev
<bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
And the preliminary results of using a prediction market to try to wrestle with
the tough tradeoffs looks roughly correct to me, too:
https://blocksizedebate.com/
The scicast prediction market is shutdown atm (since early July?) so those
numbers aren't live. But...
Network hash rate
3,255.17 PH/s (same block size) 5,032.64 PH/s (block size increase)
4,969.68 PH/s (no replace-by-fee)
3,132.09 PH/s (replace-by-fee)
Those numbers seem completely implausible: that's ~2.9-3.6 doublings of the
current hashrate (< 400PH/s) in 17 months, when it's taken 12 months for the
last doubling, and there's a block reward reduction due in that period too.
(That might've been a reasonable prediction sometime in the past year, when
doublings were slowing from once every ~45 days to once a year; it just doesn't
seem a supportable prediction now)
That the PH/s rate is higher with bigger blocks is surprising, but given that
site also predicts USD/BTC will be $280 with no change but $555 with bigger
blocks, so I assume that difference is mostly due to price. Also, 12.5btc at
$555 each is about 23 btc at $300 each, so if that price increase is realistic,
it would compensate for almost all of the block reward reduction.
Daily transaction volume 168,438.22 tx/day (same block size) 193,773.08 tx/day
(block size increase)
192,603.80 tx/day (no replace-by-fee) 168,406.73 tx/day (replace-by-fee)
That's only a 15% increase in transaction volume due to the block size
increase; I would have expected more? 168k-194k tx/day is also only a 30%-50%
increase in transaction volume from 130k tx/day currently. If that's really the
case, then a 1.5MB-2MB max block size would probably be enough for the next two
years...
(Predicting that the node count will drop from ~5000 to ~1200 due to increasing
block sizes seems quite an indictment as far as centralisation risks go; but
given I'm not that convinced by the other predictions, I'm not sure I want to
give that much weight to that one either)
Cheers,aj
--
Anthony Towns <a...@erisian.com.au>
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