One thing that might help you here is the TCP Timestamps option. The timestamps thus produced are opaque, but you can observe them and measure the time intervals between their production and echo. You should be able to infer something from that, with care.
To determine the difference between loaded and unloaded states, you may need to observe for an extended period of time. Eventually you'll observe some sort of bulk flow, even if it's just a software update cycle. It's not quite so certain that you'll observe an idle state, but it is sufficient to observe an instance of the link not being completely saturated, which is likely to occur at least occasionally. - Jonathan Morton
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