On Sat, Nov 09, 2002 at 11:24:36PM +1000, Russell Chapman wrote: > OK - predictions for the future. My guess is that Iraq will announce > compliance. Inspectors may even get into the country. At some point, > the inspectors will be barred or hindered, and Iraq will start arguing > over the fine print (something along the lines that no-drive zones > don't affect helicopters sounds like a dispute waiting to happen...). > US and UK will call for action at Iraq's non-compliance, but the > UNSC will stall and argue and Iraq will have the chance to move it's > weapons to a different location...
I think it all depends on the weapons inspectors now. I have little doubt that Iraq will hinder them in some way to try to hide their weapons. The question in my mind is how promptly and decisively the inspectors will report a hindrance to the UNSC. If Hans Blix comes to the UNSC and decisively states that he was hindered, then there really isn't much room for argument based on the resolution, and I suspect the members know it. If they argue after a decisive statement by inspectors, the US and UK will go it alone and use force. I hope the inspectors are reliable. > I hope I'm wrong, but I think the UN can't stop any country doing > anything if that country is determined enough... I don't think the UN can stop a determined country either. But the US and UK can. -- "Erik Reuter" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> http://www.erikreuter.net/ _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
