--- In [EMAIL PROTECTED], Gautam Mukunda <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > Well, it fell below replacement level only recently, > but it started falling a long time ago.
Well, for sure. Development is obviously going to cause the birth rate to fall - but to what level? To put it another way, imagine three possible societal birth rates. 1) The agricultural birth rate, where 5+ kids is the norm. (Perhaps it was once even higher?) 2) A sustainable birth rate, where 2-4 kids is the norm. 3) The "catastrophe" birth rate, where 0-1 kids is the norm. I suspect that for developed societies, there may be a correlation between religion and arriving at the 2nd Birth Rate vs. the 3rd Birth Rate. Speaking just in terms of Catholicism for a moment, Catholicism is a very pro-family religion. Married couples are *expected* to have children, and it is considered noble to devote yourself to sustaining a family and raising up the next generation. Thus, the primary unit of "hapiness maximization" in many cases is treated as the family. Secularism, however, is not nearly as pro-family. In particular, a hallmark of secularism is individualism - i.e. where one's one good is of primary importance. Children are often thought (pre- parenthood) to be an obstacle to one's own happiness. After all, they require a dramatic realtering of one's lifestyle, from how much one works to what sort of entertainment activities one pursues. Moreover, in this worldview, the primary "hapiness maximization unit" is the individual, and the family is simply a means to this end - and indeed, to the extent that the family interferes with individual happiness, it can be discarded. Thus, to me it seems entirely logical to see how the secular ideology can lead to the popularization of "childless marriages" - something which in the Catholic worldview is as much of an oxymoron as a dehydrated water bottle (infertile couples would naturally pursue adoption in the Catholic worldview). Moreover, the example of the Holy Family notwithstanding, the paragon of a Catholic family is almost always multiple children, and the phrase "only child" is not an entirely positive one - in contrast to the secular worldview where having "just one child to love" is very popular. Anyhow, I could be off-my-rocker on this, but it seems to me to be at least a plausible reason as to why America, with its stronger (albeit not necessarily Catholic) religious roots has arrived at birth rate #2, and Europe has arrrived at birth rate #3, despite our comparable levels of development. JDG _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
