As a general rule, as far as I can see, not many Americans are
bothered by a President who lies on topics of foreign policy. The
practice is expected.
But at the same time, a President and his administration are also
expected to have a competent strategy. The lies are supposed to
advance the strategy.
President Bush has a problem: more and more people are wondering
whether he and his administration have a competent strategy.
In particular, in early May President Bush said that the asymmetrical
war in Iraq was over. But that turns out not to be the case. A small
number of US soldiers are killed nearly every day: the fighting will
not bring a US military defeat but might bring a US political defeat.
Look at it like a general who considers his enemy:
The then Iraqi government, as well as those who fund other anti-US
forces, looked at history:
* the US and the USSR won World War II, a conventional war
* the US lost and withdrew from the territories of
three non-conventional conflicts,
-- Vietnam under Presidents Nixon and Ford
-- the Lebanon under President Reagan
-- Somalia under President Clinton
The first conclusion is: do not fight the US in a conventional
war; you will lose. Fight the US in a non-conventional war; you
may win.
The second conclusion is: do not attack conventional US military
targets, unless they are easy. If they are hard you may lose. If
they are easy, like a housing block in Saudi Arabia, or a ship
which you may approach without trouble, then you may attack.
The third conclusion is: attack in such a way that you aid your
friends and harm your enemies.
The fourth conclusion is: change the opinion of US political
leaders and their supporters, as with the Nixon, Ford, Reagan, and
Clinton administrations.
These suggest that in Iraq, the enemies of the US planned to carry out
an asymmetrical war in which
1. They avoid much of a conventional war with the US.
2. They avoid all but easy US military targets, or let stooges
make the attacks and get killed by the Americans.
3. Among their current goals, through sabotage, hurt those Sunnis
whom they do not like, hurt (by destroying electric power
pylons) the Shiites and Kurds whom they oppose, and arrange
that much of the sabotage occurs via looting, such as stealing
metal from power lines, so that their friends benefit.
4. Persuade decision makers in the US to pull out of Iraq within
the next 10 or 20 years without leaving a government behind it
that is as harmless to US interests as West European
governments 10 or 20 years after World War II.
As Gautam pointed out, the ability of US forces
... to adapt and learn a new strategy has been nothing short of
astonishing.
which is true.
Unfortunately, as Gautam's statement indicates, since the middle of
April, US forces have had to adapt and learn, rather than adopt a
`Plan B'. I expect US forces to adapt and learn quickly -- that is
what the new `lessons learned' programs are all about. Morever, I
have learned that some US generals even suggested that the US would
need a large Iraqi occupation force, which indicates they were wise
ahead of time.
The problem is that the Bush Administration does not give the
impression that it is fostering and protecting `lessons learned'
people or encouraging people with foresight to write `Plans B, C, and
D'.
For example, in May, the US government hoped Chalabi would take over
the Iraqi occupational government. But it turned out that various
important Iraqis disliked him and considered him too corrupt. So the
US had to design a second occupational government. The new Iraqi
Governing Council looks fine to me, but the problem is that it took so
long -- it took weeks -- for the US to install it. The US adapted and
learned; it did not have a `Plan B' ready to adopt in May.
So the question becomes one of political perception: is the Bush
Administration perceived as one that can competently carry out the job
it has undertaken? Can it pull together a coalition in the US that
will last at least a generation?
--
Robert J. Chassell Rattlesnake Enterprises
http://www.rattlesnake.com GnuPG Key ID: 004B4AC8
http://www.teak.cc [EMAIL PROTECTED]
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