At 07:39 AM 3/23/2004 -0500 John D. Giorgis wrote:
>>A few questions. In the late '70s oil prices spiked and the result was
>>double digit inflation (one of the things that killed Carter's re-elction
>>bid). This year oil prices are growing and predicted to go higher by
>>some. The news about reserves probably won't help. Is it possible that
>>we will see that kind of runaway inflation again? How would that effect
>>your predictions?
>
>This is considered unlikely be many analysts.
One thing I forgot to mention, though, is that inflation could certainly be
pushed higher by higher oil prices (or it could stay low in spite of higher
oil prices). I personally don't have the resources at my disposal to
predict whether oil prices will continue to move higher from their present
levels, and if so what effect those higher oil prices might have on
inflation. For example, while oil prices have previously been identified
as a component of general inflation in the past, there are other
components.
Nevertheless, the consensus opinion seems to be that *runaway* inflation is
highly unlikely, especially in the short term, for the reasons that I listed.
JDG
_______________________________________________________
John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED]
"The liberty we prize is not America's gift to the world,
it is God's gift to humanity." - George W. Bush 1/29/03
_______________________________________________
http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
