--- Doug Pensinger <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > I'd have to disagree. While there are many > differences, some of the > similarities are striking. In particular our > reluctance to use > overwhelming force, the reliance on training an > Iraqi army to deal with > the insurgency (in the Viet Nam conflict it was > known as Vietnamization), > the killing of Iraqis that cooperate with us, the > attempts to legitimize > the government through democratic elections, etc.
Yeah, but all of the similarities you are describing are similarities with every counterinsurgency operation. If your reaction to this sort of thing is to say "It's Vietnam all over again" (note, I'm not quoting you, but paraphrasing pretty much every anti-war spokesman I can think of) then what you're really saying is that we can never, ever fight a counter-insurgency. We've fought wars like this before, and we've won them before too. Just because we didn't in Vietnam doesn't mean it's not possible. > Perhaps. I know little about these events, but > having lived through Viet > Nam I can say that I do see striking similarities. Well, maybe. It's an old point in political science, though, that people tend to believe that _every_ historical situation is exactly like their formative one. People who lived through the First World War folded like a house of cards to Hitler, because they (mis)interpreted the pre-war situation as one in which the Allies refused to appease Germany enough. Revelations from the German archives show that this was an entirely incorrect interpretation, btw. People who lived through Munich said - never concede to a dictator ever again. This had a better record, I guess, but it helped get us into Vietnam. People who lived through Vietnam seem to feel that every war forever afterwards is like Vietnam. During Afghanistan Johnny Apple ran an article on the front page of the New York Times describing it as a quagmire that was just like Vietnam. Except it wasn't, of course. Iraq, when you get down to it, is highly dissimilar from Vietnam. We have lost considerably fewer than 2000 people in two years in Iraq. We lost almost 50,000 people in Vietnam. That's only the most immediate difference among many. > Again, this is reminiscent of Viet Nam. We killed > the population of North > Vietnam a few times over by the time we bailed > according to the official > body counts and they still kept coming. But, again, the fact that they were wrong then doesn't mean that they are wrong now. The demonstrated tactical abilities of the American military make the casualty ratios we are seeing plausible, at least. They may be wrong - I have stated in a previous post that I'm suspicious about the numbers we're seeing - but that doesn't mean that they are wrong, just that I'm suspicious. > Again, I disagree. The insurgents in Fallujah will > melt away and appear > in other cities, and when we leave Fallujah to > attack them elsewhere, they > will return. They will continue to receive military > and financial backing > from those that oppose our presence in the region. > And they will use Bush > as an icon of hatred and will use that hatred as a > recruiting tool. All of these things _may_ happen. But they _may not_ happen, too. I think modern historical research is suggesting that in the case of Vietnam (for example) the North Vietnamese continued to fight at least in part because they saw the anti-war movement and recognized that the will of the US was eroding. Bush's decisive victory is a very clear signal to the insurgents that the will of the American public is as strong as it ever was. Maybe the insurgents will melt away. But maybe they won't. The Viet Cong were well led and highly motivated - and in Tet they engaged in a set piece battle with an American military far less capable than today's and got themselves annihilated. The Iraqi insurgents may be in the process of making a similar mistake in Fallujah. Only events can tell us one way or the other. The American military has a remarkable capacity for institutional learning, and it surely is going to try to prevent exactly that from happening. It may succeed, it may not. ===== Gautam Mukunda [EMAIL PROTECTED] "Freedom is not free" http://www.mukunda.blogspot.com __________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? Check out the new Yahoo! Front Page. www.yahoo.com _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
