On Thu, Dec 16, 2004 at 05:26:52PM -0500, Damon Agretto wrote: > Oh I dunno. I don't think any company is going to let the situation > go to the point where there is no more oil. To make a viable product > during the Oil Embargo, and to meet customer demands, more fuel > efficient cars were developed. When the wells run dry the automotive > industry is going to be forced to develop new technologies, or be > forced to close their doors or be replaced by a competitor. Capitalism > might be callous, but they will respond to market demands if the > demand is strong enough...
I think you are both underestimating the duration of the transition. I doubt the cross-over point will be reached in our lifetimes, but in general what will happen (barring a revolutionary technological advance) is that fossil fuels will gradually get more expensive (I'm talking 50-100 years order of magnitude here). Fossil fuels won't just "run out". As the easy sources are used up, people who really need the fossil fuel will pay more for people to extract the fuel from the really difficult places that had been previously ignored. Eventually the price of fossil fuel will exceed that of alternative energy sources (mostly solar and wind), which will also probably come down in price a bit over the years. At some point in the future, the prices cross over and some time after that alternative energy surpasses the 50% point and keeps going. -- Erik Reuter http://www.erikreuter.net/ _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
