----- Original Message ----- From: "Robert J. Chassell" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <brin-l@mccmedia.com> Sent: Monday, May 02, 2005 7:33 AM Subject: US riches, actual and hypothetical
> Here is a question that Dan Minette may be able to answer quickly. > > My goal is to get some grasp of the consequences of long term policies > by the two major US political parties. > > A while back, Dan figured out the rate of measured economic growth in > each US political administration, excluding the first two years. By > excluding the first two years he avoided effects from the policies of > a previous administration. Thus, the rate of growth for the > Republican Eisenhower adminstration was determined for 1954 - 1960 and > for the Democratic Kennedy/Johnson administration was for 1962 - 1968, > counting those years inclusively. > > Please start with the measured income of the US in 1948, or from > another base year for which information is readily available, perhaps > 1928, but no more recent than 1952. The idea here is to generalize > beyond short term actions and look at long term trends and policies. >From 1920 to 2000, if we exclude the first two years of a party having the presidency, the real GDP growth rate under Republicans was 2.5%/year, and under Democrats was 5.1%/year. The table I happened to grab didn't have 2003 and 2004, so the Republican numbers might change by 0.1% or so if we include those years. If the average growth rate during the 82 year period was the same as the Republican rate quoted above, then the GDP would be $4778 billion. If the average growth rate was the same as the Democratic rate quoted above, the GDP would be 36823. The actual number for 2002 is 10442. I think that Erik's point on this is fairly valid...that the Democrat's policy is closer to the "sweet spot", besides WWII helping the Democrats a bit, so I don't really think that continuous Democratic rule would have resulted in >3x the present GDP. In terms of per capita GDP, were talking about, roughly 16.5 k/pp for the Rep. scenario, 36 for the actual value in '02, and 127k for the Dem. scenario. Those are the numbers that have been requested; this time without much interpretation by your sponser. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
