----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Gautam Mukunda" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <brin-l@mccmedia.com>
Sent: Wednesday, August 31, 2005 6:38 PM
Subject: Re: Gas Prices


> --- "Horn, John" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> > I filled up yesterday morning at $2.39 per gallon.
> > When I went home
> > yesterday, it was $2.69.  I just passed the station
> > on my way home
> > from work today and it was $2.99 per gallon.  How
> > can that be?  How
> > can it have gone up $.60 per gallon over the course
> > of a day?  I
> > know Katrina hit the gulf oil platforms hard but did
> > gas prices jump
> > this much in past hurricanes?
> >
> > Can someone (anyone?) explain what's going on?
> >
> >  - jmh
>
> The problem isn't crude oil supplies (mainly) but
> refinery capacity.

That is true, but it doesn't fully explain what happened.  Oil futures
prices went up about $2.00 a barrel from before/after.  That's about 3%.
Gasoline futures prices went up about $0.40/gallon, over 20%.

But, that doesn't explain a $0.60 rise at the gas station for two reasons.

1) October futures delivery has no direct impact on the wholesale price
already paid by the gas station owner.

2) The rise was 50% more than the future rise in wholesale prices.

It was a reaction to what the market would bear, I think.

>Quite a few refineries are on the
> Gulf Coast as well, so this causes a significant
> problem, particularly because there is (IIRC) little
> or no slack in global refinery capacity either, so
> it's difficult to make up the difference.

That really would have been bad if Houston were substituted for New Orleans
because about half of the US refinery capacity is just east of Houston.
Rationing may actually have been needed.....or gas prices up to $6.00/gal.

Dan M.


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