----- Original Message ----- From: "Robert Seeberger" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <brin-l@mccmedia.com> Sent: Sunday, December 11, 2005 9:16 AM Subject: Re: Bitter Fruit
> > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Doug Pensinger" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <brin-l@mccmedia.com> > Sent: Sunday, December 11, 2005 12:02 AM > Subject: Re: Bitter Fruit > > > > Dan wrote: > > > >> But, you are putting forth a different question. Whether the Bush > >> Administration thought Iraq posed a significant threat to the US. > >> I think that's true. I think, especially after 9-11, they made the > >> connection, and proof texted the intelligence, ignoring every > >> caveat, to find proof of what they already knew. And, with all due > >> respect, I think the "blood for oil" argument is a left wing > >> parallel of their mythology. > > > > But, gee whiz, we've not only got strategic control of the Iraqi oil > > fields, we've got record high oil prices and oil company profits! > > Its a win win!! And giant corporate friends of the president get > > huge no bid contracts! Win, win, win!!! And it's all because of > > the war on terror, so its all the terrorist's fault. Win, win, win, > > win!!!! Golly, gee whiz, how convenient is that?!?!! > > > > Has anyone factored in increased demand from China and India as a > partial reason for higher Oil/Gas prices? > I seem to recall that was an issue about a year or so ago. > Certainly, the increased demand from the Asian sector (which includes China and India) is an important factor. When oil dropped through the floor in 1999, there was a combination of factors that included a big spike up in Iraqi oil exports combined with a lessening of the increase in demand for oil. A quick google didn't pull up the chart I found a week ago, but I think that demand from '98 to '99 either went up 1% or was flat. So, if Iraq oil production was now at 4 million barrels/day, we would not have $10.00 oil. We also would not have $60.00 oil. This summer, I read that the spare production was down to half a million barrels/day. If Iraq was up at 4, that would be closer to 3. Rough guess from past trends, I'd say that oil would have stayed near the price it was at in the year or so before the war if things went as planned. One thing that amazes me is how inelastic demand was between $30 oil and $60 oil. We are starting to see an effect, but 2005 should be a record year for world oil consumption. This indicates to me, since short term supply is also fairly inelastic, that oil prices are very sensitive to relatively minor (in a percentage basis) variations in the supply/demand balance. Dan M. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
