At 04:35 PM Monday 1/16/2006, Robert J. Chassell wrote:
But isn't that what the Security Council is? I mean, when it was
set up, it was the "Nuclear Club" ...
No, when the Security Council was set up, it consisted of the five
victorious countries that could make modern weapons (i.e., non-nuclear
1940s weapons) in reasonably large quantities. (China probably could
not build weapons such as large artillery but was independent and
populous; the US, Soviet Union, Britain, and France could.) The two
other `munitioning areas', as I have heard them called, were Germany
and Japan. They lost WWII.
Only later did the Security Council come to be made up of the
`official' nuclear weapons' states.
There was more proliferation but those other countries did not get to
become permanent members of the Security Council.
My hunch is that the major reason nowadays that countries decide to
invest in nuclear weapons is to brandish them as an `equalizer', like
the Colt revolver was said to be for women in the 19th century. In
WWII, Iran was occupied by Britain and the Soviet Union. Later, it
was attacked by Iraq. And that is only in living memory.
Were it to possess nuclear weapons, the Iranian government probably
thinks the US or other foreign power would be less likely to attack.
Moreover, the Iranian government probably figures that nuclear
weapons, besides being dramatic, will continue after Iran ceases to be
an oil exporter, which it says will be in 20 years or less. (And
peaceful nuclear energy makes sense, too, if you take Iran government
announcements of its oil depletion seriously.)
Control of energy is Iran's current deterrent: by cutting or halting
exports it can brings down China, Europe, and, since oil is fungible,
the US. Iran would also hurt itself, so it does not want to do this.
Also, it is not clear that the current US administration sees an
eventual US economic collapse as harmful to itself and its supporters,
many of whom own oil and coal that would gain in value.
Ending on an unpleasant note: one possible reason given for the
`Great Silence' (as David Brin called it in
http://skew.ot.com/three/random/silence.html ) is that a world kills
or seriously injures itself shortly -- within centuries -- after its
intelligent species becomes able to build nuclear weapons.
Asimov put it a little more colorfully in his story entitled "Silly Asses."
--Ronn! :)
"Since I was a small boy, two states have been added to our country
and two words have been added to the pledge of Allegiance... UNDER
GOD. Wouldn't it be a pity if someone said that is a prayer and that
would be eliminated from schools too?"
-- Red Skelton
(Someone asked me to change my .sig quote back, so I did.)
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