--- In [EMAIL PROTECTED], "Robert G. Seeberger" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > On 7/11/2006 8:48:13 AM, jdiebremse ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote: > > --- In [EMAIL PROTECTED], "Robert Seeberger" <rceeberger@> > > wrote: > > > but because every MW of > > > wind power used is that many barrels of Middle Eastern oil we > > > won't > > > need to purchase til later. > > > > Actually, this is unlikely. > > > > Let's > > say that increased use of wind power results in a decrease in the > > price of oil (this too is unlikely since little oil is used for > > electricity generation compared to coal and natural gas). This > > decrease in the price of oil, would cause a little less oil to be > > supplied. However, since the oil produced in the Middle East is > > produced extraordinarily cheaply there, the oil that is no longer > > supplied is unlikely to be Middle Eastern. Rather, the > > displaced oil > > is likely to be expensively produced oil from marginal fields in > > developed countries like the US. > > I have no problem with your reasoning here, but I was talking > about something different. If you generate power by some other > means than the use of oil, then you are not using oil for that > particular amount of work. That means you do not have to buy that > bit of oil in the first place. That is a savings.
Well, what you specifically suggested was that that savings would come from Middle Eastern oil. My point is that we'll likely be "dependent on" Middle Eastern oil for as long as our society uses any oil whatsoever. Because Middle Eastern oil is, roughly, the cheapest oil out there, it will be the last oil to be displaced by consumption shifting to substitute goods. > But yes, you are correct. If enough alternatives to fossil fuels > are used to generate power, then supply should increase and prices > should lower to whatever degree. I think any oil we don't buy will > just go to some other customer....India or China frex. So it may > be a good idea to increase our reserve by buying oil now and > storing it in some salt dome or such. That would essentially be a bet on the price of oil increasing at a rate faster than other assets you could spend your money on. JDG _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
