> -----Original Message-----
> From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
> Behalf Of Charlie Bell
> Sent: Saturday, August 05, 2006 8:49 AM
> To: Killer Bs Discussion
> Subject: Re: More From the National Intelligence Estimate
> 
> 
> On 05/08/2006, at 11:34 PM, Andrew Crystall wrote:
> 
> >
> > It was not an "error" to overthrow Saddam. Sure, your government lied
> > to you about the reasons, and by all means call them to account for
> > it, but overthrowing that sort of unstably dangerous tyrant isn't a
> > mistake.
> 
> It is if you're replacing him with a vacuum. Saddam could have waited
> another 6 month or a year, with more and more pressure. 

Given the situation, I don't think there was a way to ratchet up pressure
from what it was.  The US was forward deployed and combat ready in a way
that it wasn't ready to sustain for a year.  I think that the US could have
got a resolution at the UN that would allow for the imposition of smart
sanctions, but I think that, as the bribing of the French UN delegate shows,
that even smart sanctions would have workarounds. 

I do agree, thought, that Hussein could have waited a couple of years, given
what we knew at the time.  We could have focused our effort on rebuilding
Afghanistan, pouring a good deal of money into that small country.

>The "Coalition" could have genuinely won the "hearts and minds" of the
> Iraqis. There must have been better ways than what they chose.

There were.  And, the ironic part of it was that those better plans were
available to be used before the war.  The State Department, using their
expertise in development, had a well developed, realistic plan for post war
Iraq.  In addition, the present ambassador, who by all accounts is very
skilled at his job, was ready to step in and start things moving.

Unfortunately, Bush decided to go for the Cheney/Rumsfeld "plan" which was
nothing more than loosely sketched wishful thinking.  Day care managers who
had their resumes on the Heritage Foundation website ended up running the
Iraq economy, while the youngest project manager in the history of the JFK
school of government, who's experience was in international development in
Russia, had his application tabled for months on end.  He had the
application in, knowing full well that he might die as a result, but feeling
that success in Iraq was critical for the next 20 years.  He is, of course,
our own Gautam.

This is where I fault the administration.  To me, it has all the elements of
a true tragedy.  The quest, overturning a cruel dictator and bringing
democracy and prosperity to the Iraqi people, is heroic.  The quest is
betrayed by the hubris of the key players: the Bush administration.  As a
result, they do untold damage to their own cause.

Dan M. 


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