>
> > Yesterday was the Summer solstice here in the South Pacific and the day
> > before was cold - only 6 degrees celsius.
> >
> > Global warming harumph.
>
>The fact that it is colder in some places than normal may be a sign of
>global warming. I know that some predictions say that global warming will
>make it colder and wetter here in our part of California because more cold
>air will be sucked off the Pacific by rising air in a hotter Central
Valley.
>Global warming will lead to less stable weather and more extremes.
>Or already is.
>From what I understand of the models, that's not quite the consensus.
Global warming is a long-term trend, not a year by year trend. In
addition, we know that the weather had other variables, like the hurricane
cycle (30s-40s many hurricanes, 70s-80s few, '00s many, or the La Nina/El
Nino variation.
Overall, this last year has been the coolest in the decade. This doesn't
mean there is more variation than usual. For example, we've not had another
dust bowl of the '30s.
To first order, one should expect a general warming, and pattern changes
with global warming. Most models predict more rain overall. The patterns
of drought may not be more vicious, we're just more globally connected now.
The data on hurricanes, in particular, is hard to pinpoint, because we can
not name a tropical storm that just reaches 40 mph in the mid-Atlantic, or
catch a hurricane at its peak of 155 to make it a cat 5, even though it
ramped up and down fast, and hit land as only a cat 2.
So, if one applies a fairly heavy, say 15 year filter, to the data, one
sees global warming. If one looks for general regional trends, they are
probably still mostly in the noise, but may energe later (in fact I'd be
surprised if none emerged later).
Dan M.
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