John Williams wrote: > It was not "bitching", there was a point I was trying to make: taking > a complicated system like the US economy, and comparing it to > something far less complex, and then drawing conclusions from the > simple comparison leads to incorrect information, and overconfident > predictions. > > Can some complex systems be analyzed by comparison to a more simple > system? Sure, there are plenty of examples, although most of them are > in the physical sciences rather than the social sciences. Asimov's > psychohistory made a great story, but it does not work in practice. > There are precious little useful predictions coming out of economics.
The analogy I used that led to your little tirade on the subject was meant to illustrate the proper use of the word predict. How is the word predict a complex system? Doug _______________________________________________ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
