On Sun, Aug 30, 2009 at 8:17 AM, Doug Pensinger<brig...@zo.com> wrote:
> In a baseball game, if an error is made on a play that would have > ended an inning and a number of runs are scored afterwards, its not > much of a stretch to say that if the error had not occurred, the runs > wouldn't have scored. It is certainly not a prediction. Taking a complicated situation and equating it to a simple one, and then assuming that what holds for the simple situation holds for the complex one, is likely to lead to incorrect information, flawed decisions, and overconfidence in one's ability to predict the evolution of the complicated situation. _______________________________________________ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
