On 2009-09-05, Dan M wrote: > > We know that, while we cannot see trends as absolute rules when dealing > with complex systems, the most persimmons model consistent within the data > has the best chance of being a reasonable approximation of what we will > understand as we gain a better, more detailed understanding of the system. > In addition, it has the best change of future predictions. Note, I didn't > say that it would always be right; there are many times that extrapolations > beyond data are wrong. But, if one were to consider all possible theories > available at the time,, one's best chance of being close is choosing that > theory. > I had a feeling that I had predicted the crisis, but I didn't find my message.
Here it is: Subject: Welcome to Hyperinflation! Date: 2008-08-29 12:30 I was just checking the evolution of PPI (PPI and CPI measure inflation in the USA), and noticed that _this year_ the accumulated inflation is about 10% (!!!) Welcome to Hyperinflation. If you want any hints on how to survive and prosper under hyperinflation, just ask me. Brazil had it for decades. Which means that I could see the sympthoms of the next blow-up, but not the actual blow-up... Alberto Monteiro, brin-l cassandra number 2 (number 1 is JDG) _______________________________________________ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
