I'm chugging along with my mutant cube skill experiments as I can spare time, saving all games, which I will share on my web site, when I'm done, along with my scripts.
While doing the double at > 50% experiment, I remembered an old question I had asked in RGB about a year ago: What if the winner of the opening roll is allowed pre-double? See thread: https://groups.google.com/g/rec.games.backgammon/c/BVEnaqGM6dg/m/2c685q4DAAAJ When you evaluate the opening position in GnuBG, this is what you get: ========================================================= Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA Evaluator: Contact Win W(g) W(bg) L(g) L(bg) Equity Cubeful static: 52.1 15.4 0.8 13.0 0.8 +0.067 +0.084 1 ply: 52.7 14.8 0.9 12.9 0.5 +0.076 +0.098 2 ply: 52.5 14.9 0.7 12.5 0.5 +0.076 +0.099 Cube analysis 2-ply cubeless equity +0.076 52.5 14.9 0.7 - 47.5 12.5 0.5 Cubeful equities: 1. No double +0.099 2. Double, pass +1.000 (+0.901) 3. Double, take -0.171 (-0.270) Proper cube action: No double, take (23.0%) ========================================================= I have created a Python script to intervene if the human player wins the opening roll, to set the cube at 2 owned by the bot, and then to execute "end game" command, for the bot to play for both sides at the same checker and cube skill settings. So, you know the equity gained by winning the opening roll and the equity lost by making the cube error at the same time, before the first move. Can anyone tell me what I will be expecting to see after, let's say, 10,000 games, in terms of which side will win/lose by what percentage? BTW: I already know. ;) I'm asking to see how confident are you in GnuBG's equity and/or error calculations and how competent are you to make mathematical predictions? MK
