On Fri, 22 Oct 2004 09:35:19 -0600, Zhon Johansen <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> Jonathan Rasmusson wrote:
>
> >I like the point system because in the past I have found it useful
> >for:
> >
> >a) tracking
> >b) building teams
> >c) creating a no blame culture
> >
> >
> d) project estimation
>
> Our team was quoted frequently saying, "Maximize the number of points
> for this iteration" and "Time happens, but you work for points" (another
> one has to do with money).
>
> During the time we used points, our project predictability was
> incredible. Our release was within days of its prediction many months ago.
>
> Later, with new management, real time estimates were once again invoked
> (as XP was expunged). Individual accountability was increase at the cost
> of project predictability. The last project was months late. The new
> management blamed the lateness on the inability to estimate. Oddly, it
> turns out, the team could accurately estimate in points as a team but
> couldn't estimate as individuals in real time.
>
I would venture that they estimated just as consistently in real time
as they did in points, but when you use the unit of hours or days then
when it's not quite right, it is really hard to adjust. When you
estimate in points, and you think a point is a day, and it turns out
that a point is a day and a half, then it is really easy to adjust the
whole plan.
I think engineers are really good at estimating stories consistently.
By consistently I mean that all stories are estimated well relative to
each other. While a story estimated as a day might take more or less
than a day to complete, it usually is half as 'hard' as a story
estimated as two days.
But it is REALLY hard, once you realize that stories have been under
estimated by 50%, to get the project manager to adjust his gant chart
to account for that.
Another roadblock I see with realtime estimates is that when you
realize that the stories are all underestimated by 50%, then you have
to go and re-estimate all the stories. With point based systems you
can just adjust the velocity and the plan adjusts with it.
Recently, late into a project, the gold owner wanted weekly updates on
remaining work in 'engineer days'. We were able to use yesterday's
weather to easily convert the remaining points into engineer days and
provide the reports. Because we had enough data, our estimates were
usually right on.
--
Curtis Cooley
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