The huge migration in our area last night and this mass mortality event in the southwest of what are apparently emaciated birds has started me wondering what kind of monitoring is done on condition of migrating birds. How much data is collected each fall at banding stations, how widely is that info disseminated? How much can we know about the food supply that was available all season on breeding territories throughout the summer based on the birds‘ migration condition? This seems to me to be an extremely early movement of such large numbers of all species. I’m know the assumption that migration is triggered by ideal weather Is true but ideal weather can occur of course at the end of September to middle of October and I am wondering if anyone has the sense that such large movement is at also connected to low food supplies which is another major motivator of migration. I am going by Chris T-H post of the stream of migrants that he detected last night while listening. And of course perhaps I am mistaken that this is early.
Maybe some people like John and Sue can weigh in on fall migration banding, bird condition and if there are detectable trends. Thank you. I hope this is an ok discussion at this time. Linda Orkin Ithaca NY > On Sep 18, 2020, at 8:53 AM, Jeff Gerbracht <jeffgerbra...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > While this is an interesting discussion, we have certainly veered far off the > topic of Cayuga Birds. It might be time to move this specific thread to a > private discussion. > Thanks. > > >> On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 12:26 AM David Nicosia <daven102...@gmail.com> wrote: >> >> This analogy is not true. The atmosphere doesn't work this way. Greenhouse >> gases are not a lid on the atmosphere. They absorb and emit infrared >> radiation in all directions some back to the Earth. This keeps the Earth >> 33C warmer than if the Earth was a blackbody radiator, i.e no atmosphere. >> The sun gives us about 239 W/m2 of energy if you take geometry into account. >> The blackbody radiation temperature associated with this is 255K or -18C or >> 0F. By increasing greenhouse gases, the emission layer rises to a higher >> altitude which is colder thus there is less emission. The earth must warm up >> some to balance the reduced IR emission. A lid just increases the pressure >> from steam in a boiling pot. That would make currents up and down a lot >> stronger. But it is the increase in pressure that causes this. Greenhouse >> gases don't increase atmospheric pressure at all. If you hold all else >> equal, a doubling of our CO2 content from pre-industrial times leads to >> about 1.2C of warming which is pretty benign and could even be beneficial to >> many. The Earth has warmed almost 1C since the late 1800s some of this >> before large scale fossil fuel burning. After a temporary cool down between >> the 1940s and 70s, the Earth has warmed about .6C since the late 70s. This >> in the grand scheme of things is very small considering that 8000 years ago >> based on pollen samples the NH was likely 2-4C warmer than present. This >> area was covered in a more southern type of forest similar to Virginia. The >> spruce and fir zone was higher in our mountains and the tree line was >> farther north in Canada. So I think our birds will be pretty adaptable if >> the climate warms as predicted. They adapted before, why not now? Our >> species composition would probably change as suggested by some authors. >> >> The fires in the west, hurricanes and record cold in the Rockies recently is >> just weather. Weather can be extreme at times. That has always been the >> case. Back in the day we didn't have 24 hour news, media hype and social >> media to notice as much. The bottom line, if the Earth continues to warm as >> predicted it warms more at the poles vs the tropics. This weakens the jet >> stream which would weaken storms. Storms derived their energy from the jet >> stream and baroclinic instability. Baroclinic instability is stronger when >> there is a stronger temperature contrast between the poles and tropics. If >> global warming continues and the Arctic warms at a much faster rate as >> predicted, storms will be weaker. Cold outbreaks will be less frequent. Hope >> this helps. >> >> >> >> >> >>> On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 1:07 PM Dave Nutter <nutter.d...@me.com> wrote: >>> Thank you to everyone who has helped address the issues of the NM migrant >>> die-off, the surprising weather, and some effects of climate change. Here’s >>> a very generalized view and analogy about weather, global warming, and >>> climate change which I have found helpful: >>> >>> Sunlight heats the earth the most where it hits most directly and for the >>> longest time during the day. That includes the tropics, or low latitudes, >>> where midday sun is very direct, and where daytime is always about 12 >>> hours. And it includes whichever hemisphere is tilted toward the sun and >>> having summer where, as you increase in latitude going toward the polar >>> regions, the hours of daylight increase to 24 although directness of the >>> sun decreases. >>> >>> The average temperature of the earth has been staying fairly stable within >>> a narrow range for years and years. A stable temperature means that as much >>> heat has to leave the earth as was provided by the sun’s warmth. That heat >>> is radiated back to outer space from the places which are not being heated >>> up: wherever it’s nighttime, plus wherever the sun strikes at at too low an >>> angle to effectively provide much warmth - in early morning, late >>> afternoon and higher latitudes. >>> >>> Wind, at its most basic, is caused by temperature changes at the earth’s >>> surface which warm or cool the air, changing the air’s density and >>> pressure. Denser air falls, and the air moves to even out the pressure. And >>> the air redistributes heat as it moves. On a very large scale, that heat >>> redistribution takes heat from the warmer places to the colder places, but >>> the wind has many eddies, so that what happens locally or regionally may be >>> different. >>> >>> [There are also huge effects from water which I’m ignoring here: Part of >>> the earth’s surface, the ocean, moves and transfers a great deal of heat >>> energy in major currents such as the Gulf Stream. Ice & snow reflect >>> sunlight back into space. Clouds also act as reflectors on top but as >>> insulating blankets below. Water absorbs heat as it evaporates or melts but >>> gives off heat as it condenses or freezes.] >>> >>> >>> My analogous situation is a pot of hot water on a stove such that the lid >>> is off, the water has been brought to a boil, so it is thoroughly warmed, >>> and the flame has been reduced enough that the water is no longer boiling, >>> but it’s in a steady state where there are steam bubbles forming on the >>> bottom which disappear before reaching the surface. >>> >>> The source of heat is the flame below, analogous to the sun. The heat, via >>> the water, eventually goes into the room, our equivalent of outer space. If >>> you look down at the water you should be able to see places on the surface >>> where there are upwellings of warmer water rising. The water doesn’t rise >>> everywhere at once, and the water is descending in between where it is >>> rising. The pot itself is like the surface of the earth, warmer right over >>> the flame (where sunlight is direct and prolonged) and cooler at the rim >>> (everywhere else). The movements of water in the pot are like the weather >>> on earth. The heat comes in, it gets moved around by the weather in a >>> general pattern with lots of smaller scale differences, and the heat >>> leaves, while the overall temperature remains fairly even. >>> >>> Now, suppose that, without changing the low flame, you partially cover the >>> pot with a lid. It’s now a bit more difficult for the heat to escape, so >>> the water temperature rises to a new stable level, and you may even get the >>> water to boil again without increasing the flame. Also those convection >>> currents in the water get stronger - both the hot currents going one >>> direction and cooler currents going the other direction. >>> >>> The lid partially covering the pot is the equivalent of adding greenhouse >>> gases to our atmosphere. The result is a warmer average temperature, and >>> also stronger weather patterns, both warm winds and cold winds, and >>> stronger storms (with lots of water evaporating, condensing, >>> freezing & melting) helping to redistribute heat as well. What happens at >>> any particular location on earth is apt to be different from previous >>> patterns, more extreme, more violent, and more variable. We can’t rely as >>> much on our reassuring decades of weather records (the previous climate for >>> any location) for what to expect anymore, because we have changed the >>> atmosphere so that the system is more energetic. >>> >>> As a reward to birders who slogged through my weather & climate paragraphs, >>> and as a distraction from the terrible migrant mortality out west, and as >>> an attempt to redeem an otherwise non-bird post: >>> >>> An adult Junco showed up at my feeders yesterday and today, which to me is >>> a sign of autumn. An immature junco was briefly here at the end of August >>> in a streaky gray plumage which my 2nd edition Sibley guide did not depict. >>> >>> A male Rose-breasted Grosbeak first showed up at my feeders on 24 August >>> and I assume it’s the same bird I’ve seen several times since, including >>> today. He has been molting into a plumage which, again, my 2nd edition >>> Sibley guide did not depict. >>> >>> - - Dave Nutter >>> >>> On Sep 16, 2020, at 8:41 PM, John Luther Cisne <john.ci...@cornell.edu> >>> wrote: >>> >>>> Record cold over North America is indeed consistent with global warming. >>>> It is a regional consequence of the global phenomenon. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> To explain it simply (as I was supposed to do in the elementary course I >>>> taught of years and years, “Evolution of the Earth and Life”), the >>>> principle of the thing is that Arctic Basin warms not only by importing >>>> warm air from the south, mainly over oceans, but also by exporting cold >>>> air to the south, mainly over continents. Export of air from the north >>>> makes space for import of air from the south, so to speak. For now, at >>>> least, the export of cold air from the Arctic is concentrated over North >>>> America. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> Certain of my colleagues in the Department Earth and Atmospheric Sciences >>>> will be able to give everyone a far better and more detailed explanation. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> From: <bounce-124948208-77975...@list.cornell.edu> on behalf of "Kevin J. >>>> McGowan" <k...@cornell.edu> >>>> Reply-To: "Kevin J. McGowan" <k...@cornell.edu> >>>> Date: Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 8:03 PM >>>> To: david nicosia <daven1...@yahoo.com>, Peter Saracino >>>> <petersarac...@gmail.com>, Jody Enck <jodye...@gmail.com> >>>> Cc: "atvaw...@gmail.com" <atvaw...@gmail.com>, CAYUGABIRDS-L >>>> <cayugabird...@list.cornell.edu> >>>> Subject: RE: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> “Record cold of this magnitude is not consistent with global warming. “ >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> Why not? Global warming doesn’t mean warming happens all over the globe >>>> evenly. I’ve been watching our area in the northeast for the last decade, >>>> thinking mostly about Snowy Owl incursions, and I’ve noticed strange >>>> changes in the distribution of cold across the arctic, perhaps changes in >>>> the “polar vortex” that seem to isolate the NE as a cold spot while Alaska >>>> warms up. The last ten years have shown Ithaca regularly with winter >>>> temperatures lower than Nome, Alaska. That isn’t right. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> Global warming at the poles doesn’t mean every place warms up, it means >>>> that the consistencies of weather patterns we could count on could be >>>> disrupted. Colder Ithaca winters and heat waves in Alaska are totally >>>> consistent with a global warming scenario. Freak arctic blasts into the >>>> rockies while the north pole melts also points to something freakishly >>>> abnormal happening, totally consistent with global warming. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> Kevin >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> From: bounce-124948138-3493...@list.cornell.edu >>>> <bounce-124948138-3493...@list.cornell.edu> On Behalf Of david nicosia >>>> Sent: Wednesday, September 16, 2020 7:46 PM >>>> To: Peter Saracino <petersarac...@gmail.com>; Jody Enck >>>> <jodye...@gmail.com> >>>> Cc: atvaw...@gmail.com; CAYUGABIRDS-L <cayugabird...@list.cornell.edu> >>>> Subject: Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> The western U.S has a history of extreme temperature changes. This event >>>> ranks number 3 for the biggest temperature swing in history and it >>>> occurred during fall migration. Most of the other big swings in temperature >>>> >>>> occurred in the winter. What is dramatic is how cold it got and the early >>>> snows that fell. Temperatures in parts of the Rockies fell to 9F with >>>> winds over 50 mph. That is insanely cold for so early in the season. The >>>> Arctic high pressure that came across the Rockies has denser and heavier >>>> air which flows downslope into California, and Oregon warming by >>>> compression leading to high winds and VERY dry conditions. This fuels the >>>> tremendous fires. So in a sense it is the brutal unseasonable cold air >>>> that is the real cause of the conditions that caused the fires. I assume >>>> the fires, combined with temperatures in the 80, 90s and 100s dropping to >>>> the teens 20s and 30s in many areas in the Rockies with early snows was >>>> too much for many birds to handle causing the high mortality rates. I have >>>> read that people are blaming climate change on this. I don't see it >>>> because it is the intense cold that really fueled the fires in CA and OR >>>> and probably had a negative effect on the birds. Record cold of this >>>> magnitude is not consistent with global warming. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> On Wednesday, September 16, 2020, 05:18:09 PM EDT, Jody Enck >>>> <jodye...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> Thank, Pete, for passing along the Guardian article. Additional >>>> information has been forthcoming recently. Hypotheses include movements >>>> related to smoky conditions in some states, coupled with those weird >>>> temperature swings recorded last week (90 to 100 F one day and below >>>> freezing, with snow, the next day). Seems less likely to be a nefarious >>>> even (e.g., poisoning) than something more likely caused by challenging >>>> environmental factors. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> I hope more information comes out soon. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> Jody W. Enck, PhD >>>> >>>> Conservation Social Scientist, and >>>> >>>> Founder of the Sister Bird Club Network >>>> >>>> 607-379-5940 >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> On Wed, Sep 16, 2020 at 5:03 PM Peter Saracino <petersarac...@gmail.com> >>>> wrote: >>>> >>>> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/16/birds-falling-out-of-the-sky-in-mass-die-off-in-south-western-us-aoe >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> On Tue, Sep 15, 2020, 6:47 PM Tom <atvaw...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>> >>>> I just learned of the mass mortality of migrating birds in New Mexico. I >>>> read a CNN report. Is there any new information on the cause? They’re >>>> talking hundreds of thousands, even millions. >>>> >>>> Tom V >>>> >>>> Sent from my iPhone >>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> >>>> Cayugabirds-L List Info: >>>> http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsWELCOME >>>> http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsRULES >>>> http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsSubscribeConfigurationLeave.htm >>>> >>>> ARCHIVES: >>>> 1) http://www.mail-archive.com/cayugabirds-l@cornell.edu/maillist.html >>>> 2) http://www.surfbirds.com/birdingmail/Group/Cayugabirds >>>> 3) http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/CAYU.html >>>> >>>> Please submit your observations to eBird: >>>> http://ebird.org/content/ebird/ >>>> >>>> -- >>>> >>>> -- >>>> >>>> Cayugabirds-L List Info: >>>> >>>> Welcome and Basics >>>> >>>> Rules and Information >>>> >>>> Subscribe, Configuration and Leave >>>> >>>> Archives: >>>> >>>> The Mail Archive >>>> >>>> Surfbirds >>>> >>>> BirdingOnThe.Net >>>> >>>> Please submit your observations to eBird! >>>> >>>> -- >>>> >>>> -- >>>> >>>> Cayugabirds-L List Info: >>>> >>>> Welcome and Basics >>>> >>>> Rules and Information >>>> >>>> Subscribe, Configuration and Leave >>>> >>>> Archives: >>>> >>>> The Mail Archive >>>> >>>> Surfbirds >>>> >>>> BirdingOnThe.Net >>>> >>>> Please submit your observations to eBird! >>>> >>>> -- >>>> >>>> -- >>>> >>>> Cayugabirds-L List Info: >>>> >>>> Welcome and Basics >>>> >>>> Rules and Information >>>> >>>> Subscribe, Configuration and Leave >>>> >>>> Archives: >>>> >>>> The Mail Archive >>>> >>>> Surfbirds >>>> >>>> BirdingOnThe.Net >>>> >>>> Please submit your observations to eBird! >>>> >>>> -- >>>> >>>> -- >>>> >>>> Cayugabirds-L List Info: >>>> >>>> Welcome and Basics >>>> >>>> Rules and Information >>>> >>>> Subscribe, Configuration and Leave >>>> >>>> Archives: >>>> >>>> The Mail Archive >>>> >>>> Surfbirds >>>> >>>> BirdingOnThe.Net >>>> >>>> Please submit your observations to eBird! >>>> >>>> -- >>>> >>>> -- >>>> Cayugabirds-L List Info: >>>> Welcome and Basics >>>> Rules and Information >>>> Subscribe, Configuration and Leave >>>> Archives: >>>> The Mail Archive >>>> Surfbirds >>>> BirdingOnThe.Net >>>> Please submit your observations to eBird! >>>> -- >>> >>> -- >>> Cayugabirds-L List Info: >>> Welcome and Basics >>> Rules and Information >>> Subscribe, Configuration and Leave >>> Archives: >>> The Mail Archive >>> Surfbirds >>> BirdingOnThe.Net >>> Please submit your observations to eBird! >>> -- >> >> -- >> Cayugabirds-L List Info: >> Welcome and Basics >> Rules and Information >> Subscribe, Configuration and Leave >> Archives: >> The Mail Archive >> Surfbirds >> BirdingOnThe.Net >> Please submit your observations to eBird! >> -- > > > -- > Jeff Gerbracht > Cornell Lab of Ornithology > -- > Cayugabirds-L List Info: > Welcome and Basics > Rules and Information > Subscribe, Configuration and Leave > Archives: > The Mail Archive > Surfbirds > BirdingOnThe.Net > Please submit your observations to eBird! > -- -- Cayugabirds-L List Info: http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsWELCOME http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsRULES http://www.NortheastBirding.com/CayugabirdsSubscribeConfigurationLeave.htm ARCHIVES: 1) http://www.mail-archive.com/cayugabirds-l@cornell.edu/maillist.html 2) http://www.surfbirds.com/birdingmail/Group/Cayugabirds 3) http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/CAYU.html Please submit your observations to eBird: http://ebird.org/content/ebird/ --
