Linda, We have not seen Chris's comments on what he was hearing but banders reported nothing that would indicate that a mass migration graced us with a stopover as we have been consistently overflown during these predicted high movement times. The predictions are fine but many are misreading the radar imagery; the majority of the returns continued beyond our area. Chris, what did you hear?
FYI, we retired our passerine efforts a few years back and now concentrate on raptors, mostly owls. After 30 years the arrival departure stats/dates remained consistent. A difference of say two weeks barely moves a day or so from the norm. Migration is indeed triggered by frontal movement with a strong NW cold front still the prime mover. Banding data are almost always time late as the data are reported to the national lab in Maryland and the made available to all researchers willing to properly credit the banders involved. Food supply is reflected in breeding results and the paucity/abundance of appropriate foods in the natal area. Usually, a paucity of food in the natal area will cause mass southbound migration. It is more the correct assist ( fronts and winds aloft) that are reflected in the timing. I see nothing unusual this year in the Northeast corridors and the timing is within standard deviation from the long term norm. Saw- whet owls in Northern Ontario are now beginning to move south in large numbers portending a good season for us in the states (if the Canadians lift the Covid embargo on travel to the states. ;-) About two weeks from now we should begin seeing many owls. Then again of food supply (largely Microtus) is high the timing /numbers should reflect that. Males compete for next year's prime territory so adult males tend to remain closer to the natal areas while migration is largely made up of birds of the year and strongly female with the young males staying closer to home. Banding data may be weaker this year due Covid safety restriction as many stations will work with just the principal banders working and most of the smart ones will eschew observers and helpers. Good to hear your thoughts ! John PS. The birdcast predictions are an awesome tool that can only get better with time as the algorithms mature and some ground truth checking gets added. It has been fun to watch. From: "Linda Orkin" <wingmagi...@gmail.com> To: "Jeff Gerbracht" <jeffgerbra...@gmail.com> Cc: "cayugabirds-l" <Cayugabirds-L@cornell.edu> Sent: Friday, September 18, 2020 3:06:07 PM Subject: Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality The huge migration in our area last night and this mass mortality event in the southwest of what are apparently emaciated birds has started me wondering what kind of monitoring is done on condition of migrating birds. How much data is collected each fall at banding stations, how widely is that info disseminated? How much can we know about the food supply that was available all season on breeding territories throughout the summer based on the birds‘ migration condition? This seems to me to be an extremely early movement of such large numbers of all species. I’m know the assumption that migration is triggered by ideal weather Is true but ideal weather can occur of course at the end of September to middle of October and I am wondering if anyone has the sense that such large movement is at also connected to low food supplies which is another major motivator of migration. I am going by Chris T-H post of the stream of migrants that he detected last night while listening. And of course perhaps I am mistaken that this is early. Maybe some people like John and Sue can weigh in on fall migration banding, bird condition and if there are detectable trends. Thank you. I hope this is an ok discussion at this time. Linda Orkin Ithaca NY On Sep 18, 2020, at 8:53 AM, Jeff Gerbracht <jeffgerbra...@gmail.com> wrote: BQ_BEGIN While this is an interesting discussion, we have certainly veered far off the topic of Cayuga Birds. It might be time to move this specific thread to a private discussion. Thanks. On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 12:26 AM David Nicosia < [ mailto:daven102...@gmail.com | daven102...@gmail.com ] > wrote: BQ_BEGIN This analogy is not true. The atmosphere doesn't work this way. Greenhouse gases are not a lid on the atmosphere. They absorb and emit infrared radiation in all directions some back to the Earth. This keeps the Earth 33C warmer than if the Earth was a blackbody radiator, i.e no atmosphere. The sun gives us about 239 W/m2 of energy if you take geometry into account. The blackbody radiation temperature associated with this is 255K or -18C or 0F. By increasing greenhouse gases, the emission layer rises to a higher altitude which is colder thus there is less emission. The earth must warm up some to balance the reduced IR emission. A lid just increases the pressure from steam in a boiling pot. That would make currents up and down a lot stronger. But it is the increase in pressure that causes this. Greenhouse gases don't increase atmospheric pressure at all. If you hold all else equal, a doubling of our CO2 content from pre-industrial times leads to about 1.2C of warming which is pretty benign and could even be beneficial to many. The Earth has warmed almost 1C since the late 1800s some of this before large scale fossil fuel burning. After a temporary cool down between the 1940s and 70s, the Earth has warmed about .6C since the late 70s. This in the grand scheme of things is very small considering that 8000 years ago based on pollen samples the NH was likely 2-4C warmer than present. This area was covered in a more southern type of forest similar to Virginia. The spruce and fir zone was higher in our mountains and the tree line was farther north in Canada. So I think our birds will be pretty adaptable if the climate warms as predicted. They adapted before, why not now? Our species composition would probably change as suggested by some authors. The fires in the west, hurricanes and record cold in the Rockies recently is just weather. Weather can be extreme at times. That has always been the case. Back in the day we didn't have 24 hour news, media hype and social media to notice as much. The bottom line, if the Earth continues to warm as predicted it warms more at the poles vs the tropics. This weakens the jet stream which would weaken storms. Storms derived their energy from the jet stream and baroclinic instability. Baroclinic instability is stronger when there is a stronger temperature contrast between the poles and tropics. If global warming continues and the Arctic warms at a much faster rate as predicted, storms will be weaker. Cold outbreaks will be less frequent. Hope this helps. On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 1:07 PM Dave Nutter < [ mailto:nutter.d...@me.com | nutter.d...@me.com ] > wrote: BQ_BEGIN Thank you to everyone who has helped address the issues of the NM migrant die-off, the surprising weather, and some effects of climate change. Here’s a very generalized view and analogy about weather, global warming, and climate change which I have found helpful: Sunlight heats the earth the most where it hits most directly and for the longest time during the day. That includes the tropics, or low latitudes, where midday sun is very direct, and where daytime is always about 12 hours. And it includes whichever hemisphere is tilted toward the sun and having summer where, as you increase in latitude going toward the polar regions, the hours of daylight increase to 24 although directness of the sun decreases. The average temperature of the earth has been staying fairly stable within a narrow range for years and years. A stable temperature means that as much heat has to leave the earth as was provided by the sun’s warmth. That heat is radiated back to outer space from the places which are not being heated up: wherever it’s nighttime, plus wherever the sun strikes at at too low an angle to effectively provide much warmth - in early morning, late afternoon and higher latitudes. Wind, at its most basic, is caused by temperature changes at the earth’s surface which warm or cool the air, changing the air’s density and pressure. Denser air falls, and the air moves to even out the pressure. And the air redistributes heat as it moves. On a very large scale, that heat redistribution takes heat from the warmer places to the colder places, but the wind has many eddies, so that what happens locally or regionally may be different. [There are also huge effects from water which I’m ignoring here: Part of the earth’s surface, the ocean, moves and transfers a great deal of heat energy in major currents such as the Gulf Stream. Ice & snow reflect sunlight back into space. Clouds also act as reflectors on top but as insulating blankets below. Water absorbs heat as it evaporates or melts but gives off heat as it condenses or freezes.] My analogous situation is a pot of hot water on a stove such that the lid is off, the water has been brought to a boil, so it is thoroughly warmed, and the flame has been reduced enough that the water is no longer boiling, but it’s in a steady state where there are steam bubbles forming on the bottom which disappear before reaching the surface. The source of heat is the flame below, analogous to the sun. The heat, via the water, eventually goes into the room, our equivalent of outer space. If you look down at the water you should be able to see places on the surface where there are upwellings of warmer water rising. The water doesn’t rise everywhere at once, and the water is descending in between where it is rising. The pot itself is like the surface of the earth, warmer right over the flame (where sunlight is direct and prolonged) and cooler at the rim (everywhere else). The movements of water in the pot are like the weather on earth. The heat comes in, it gets moved around by the weather in a general pattern with lots of smaller scale differences, and the heat leaves, while the overall temperature remains fairly even. Now, suppose that, without changing the low flame, you partially cover the pot with a lid. It’s now a bit more difficult for the heat to escape, so the water temperature rises to a new stable level, and you may even get the water to boil again without increasing the flame. Also those convection currents in the water get stronger - both the hot currents going one direction and cooler currents going the other direction. The lid partially covering the pot is the equivalent of adding greenhouse gases to our atmosphere. The result is a warmer average temperature, and also stronger weather patterns, both warm winds and cold winds, and stronger storms (with lots of water evaporating, condensing, freezing & melting) helping to redistribute heat as well. What happens at any particular location on earth is apt to be different from previous patterns, more extreme, more violent, and more variable. We can’t rely as much on our reassuring decades of weather records (the previous climate for any location) for what to expect anymore, because we have changed the atmosphere so that the system is more energetic. As a reward to birders who slogged through my weather & climate paragraphs, and as a distraction from the terrible migrant mortality out west, and as an attempt to redeem an otherwise non-bird post: An adult Junco showed up at my feeders yesterday and today, which to me is a sign of autumn. An immature junco was briefly here at the end of August in a streaky gray plumage which my 2nd edition Sibley guide did not depict. A male Rose-breasted Grosbeak first showed up at my feeders on 24 August and I assume it’s the same bird I’ve seen several times since, including today. He has been molting into a plumage which, again, my 2nd edition Sibley guide did not depict. - - Dave Nutter On Sep 16, 2020, at 8:41 PM, John Luther Cisne < [ mailto:john.ci...@cornell.edu | john.ci...@cornell.edu ] > wrote: BQ_BEGIN Record cold over North America is indeed consistent with global warming. It is a regional consequence of the global phenomenon. To explain it simply (as I was supposed to do in the elementary course I taught of years and years, “Evolution of the Earth and Life”), the principle of the thing is that Arctic Basin warms not only by importing warm air from the south, mainly over oceans, but also by exporting cold air to the south, mainly over continents. Export of air from the north makes space for import of air from the south, so to speak. For now, at least, the export of cold air from the Arctic is concentrated over North America. Certain of my colleagues in the Department Earth and Atmospheric Sciences will be able to give everyone a far better and more detailed explanation. From: < [ mailto:bounce-124948208-77975...@list.cornell.edu | bounce-124948208-77975...@list.cornell.edu ] > on behalf of "Kevin J. McGowan" < [ mailto:k...@cornell.edu | k...@cornell.edu ] > Reply-To: "Kevin J. McGowan" < [ mailto:k...@cornell.edu | k...@cornell.edu ] > Date: Wednesday, September 16, 2020 at 8:03 PM To: david nicosia < [ mailto:daven1...@yahoo.com | daven1...@yahoo.com ] >, Peter Saracino < [ mailto:petersarac...@gmail.com | petersarac...@gmail.com ] >, Jody Enck < [ mailto:jodye...@gmail.com | jodye...@gmail.com ] > Cc: " [ mailto:atvaw...@gmail.com | atvaw...@gmail.com ] " < [ mailto:atvaw...@gmail.com | atvaw...@gmail.com ] >, CAYUGABIRDS-L < [ mailto:cayugabird...@list.cornell.edu | cayugabird...@list.cornell.edu ] > Subject: RE: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality “Record cold of this magnitude is not consistent with global warming. “ Why not? Global warming doesn’t mean warming happens all over the globe evenly. I’ve been watching our area in the northeast for the last decade, thinking mostly about Snowy Owl incursions, and I’ve noticed strange changes in the distribution of cold across the arctic, perhaps changes in the “polar vortex” that seem to isolate the NE as a cold spot while Alaska warms up. The last ten years have shown Ithaca regularly with winter temperatures lower than Nome, Alaska. That isn’t right. Global warming at the poles doesn’t mean every place warms up, it means that the consistencies of weather patterns we could count on could be disrupted. Colder Ithaca winters and heat waves in Alaska are totally consistent with a global warming scenario. Freak arctic blasts into the rockies while the north pole melts also points to something freakishly abnormal happening, totally consistent with global warming. Kevin From: [ mailto:bounce-124948138-3493...@list.cornell.edu | bounce-124948138-3493...@list.cornell.edu ] < [ mailto:bounce-124948138-3493...@list.cornell.edu | bounce-124948138-3493...@list.cornell.edu ] > On Behalf Of david nicosia Sent: Wednesday, September 16, 2020 7:46 PM To: Peter Saracino < [ mailto:petersarac...@gmail.com | petersarac...@gmail.com ] >; Jody Enck < [ mailto:jodye...@gmail.com | jodye...@gmail.com ] > Cc: [ mailto:atvaw...@gmail.com | atvaw...@gmail.com ] ; CAYUGABIRDS-L < [ mailto:cayugabird...@list.cornell.edu | cayugabird...@list.cornell.edu ] > Subject: Re: [cayugabirds-l] New Mexico Mass Motality The western U.S has a history of extreme temperature changes. This event ranks number 3 for the biggest temperature swing in history and it occurred during fall migration. Most of the other big swings in temperature occurred in the winter. What is dramatic is how cold it got and the early snows that fell. Temperatures in parts of the Rockies fell to 9F with winds over 50 mph. That is insanely cold for so early in the season. The Arctic high pressure that came across the Rockies has denser and heavier air which flows downslope into California, and Oregon warming by compression leading to high winds and VERY dry conditions. This fuels the tremendous fires. So in a sense it is the brutal unseasonable cold air that is the real cause of the conditions that caused the fires. I assume the fires, combined with temperatures in the 80, 90s and 100s dropping to the teens 20s and 30s in many areas in the Rockies with early snows was too much for many birds to handle causing the high mortality rates. I have read that people are blaming climate change on this. I don't see it because it is the intense cold that really fueled the fires in CA and OR and probably had a negative effect on the birds. Record cold of this magnitude is not consistent with global warming. On Wednesday, September 16, 2020, 05:18:09 PM EDT, Jody Enck < [ mailto:jodye...@gmail.com | jodye...@gmail.com ] > wrote: Thank, Pete, for passing along the Guardian article. Additional information has been forthcoming recently. Hypotheses include movements related to smoky conditions in some states, coupled with those weird temperature swings recorded last week (90 to 100 F one day and below freezing, with snow, the next day). Seems less likely to be a nefarious even (e.g., poisoning) than something more likely caused by challenging environmental factors. I hope more information comes out soon. Jody W. Enck, PhD Conservation Social Scientist, and Founder of the Sister Bird Club Network 607-379-5940 On Wed, Sep 16, 2020 at 5:03 PM Peter Saracino < [ mailto:petersarac...@gmail.com | petersarac...@gmail.com ] > wrote: BQ_BEGIN [ https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/16/birds-falling-out-of-the-sky-in-mass-die-off-in-south-western-us-aoe | https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/16/birds-falling-out-of-the-sky-in-mass-die-off-in-south-western-us-aoe ] On Tue, Sep 15, 2020, 6:47 PM Tom < [ mailto:atvaw...@gmail.com | atvaw...@gmail.com ] > wrote: BQ_BEGIN I just learned of the mass mortality of migrating birds in New Mexico. I read a CNN report. Is there any new information on the cause? They’re talking hundreds of thousands, even millions. 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