Not using a "method" Won, not even agreeing or disagreeing with Gruss.
A great summation of my thoughts might be thus: "I'm 28, have lived in the US all my life. I've seen good times and bad times, high highs, and low lows. Yet we always come through....higher than the low times, and lower than the high times. So whatever the gloom and doom predicted for the next few years, past experience tells me the end is not nigh" > G wrote: > > When in doubt Gruss, I return to honesty: I don't know enough about > > economics to attempt to prove you wrong, or even to follow all of what you > > put forward. > > > > My comments are derived from a broad belief that things tend towards the > > middle. When someone tells you everything is great (.com bubble), things are > > probably not that good. When someone tells you we are doomed (numerous > > occasions), things probably aren't that bad. > > > > When a meteorologist tells you it is going to rain next week, you shake your > > head. "How could he possibly know that?" Your mistrust is at least partly > > based on the belief that too many unknown variables exist who's outcome > > between now and then will be deciding factors. I think the same things > > factor into predictions like these. > > > > I guess what I'm saying is, your arguments may be completely correct and > > valid based upon all that economic information you cited. But the ultimate > > accuracy of the prediction remains elusive because of the dynamic nature of > > the subject matter. > > I'm not trying to be a smart-alec or anything like that. But if the > scenario is complicated and the ultimate accuracy of the prediction > remains elusive, what would be the better way to try to prepare for the > future? > > PS what do you mean by the ultimate accuracy of the prediction remains > elusive? > > PSS I don't necessarily agree with Gruss. I respect his opinions on a > lot of topics, but I don't always agree with him. And I don't > necessarily disagree with you. I'm just curious what method you are using. > > -- > 2004 - The year $184M couldn't buy a pennant. > > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Special thanks to the CF Community Suite Gold Sponsor - CFHosting.net http://www.cfhosting.net Message: http://www.houseoffusion.com/lists.cfm/link=i:5:134129 Archives: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/threads.cfm/5 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/lists.cfm/link=s:5 Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=11502.10531.5 Donations & Support: http://www.houseoffusion.com/tiny.cfm/54
