> RoMunn wrote: > No, no, no. if 1 in 167 people is killed each year,
Here's where you're stuck: There's a difference between the odds of a favorable outcome in one iteration and that favorable outcome **without losing** **multiple times in a row**. So the odds of death do indeed double the longer you stay because you're extending the odds of a favorable outcome *without dying* across 2 years, not 1. If one could die in year 1 and then return from the dead to fight again in year 2, you'd be right. But that's not possible so you're wrong. I'll show you the math again: Every time a soldier goes into combat they have **TWO** probabilities that are important: (1.) The probability that they will die **on any given day**. This is where you and Dana are stuck. (2.) The probability of NOT dying **multiple days in a row**. If you can't make it multiple days in a row WITHOUT DYING, you can't live and return to combat. Therefore when you calculate the probability you MUST calculate the probability of the favorable outcome multiple days in a row. Here are those calculations: ..999983^365=.993814 This is the calculation that shows the probability of living 365 days in a row. It says that, based on current casualty rates, that probability is 99.3814% 0.999983^730 = 0.987667 This is calculation that shows the probability of living 2x365=730 days in a row. That probability is 98.7667% 98.7667% < 99.3814% which means that the longer you stay in combat the more likely you are to die. Now let's address your concern: -------------------------------------------------------- The probability of living is 98.7667 so 1 - 0.987667 = 0.012333 or 1.2% which is probability of dying. That means 12.33 / 1000 will die based on current rates or (12.33/12.33) / (1000/12.33) = 1/81.103 or 1 in 81 **of those in combat 2 years in a row** will die. Here's the key: [listen closely now] Of those that are in combat for 730 days in a row, 1 in 81 will die. Or, put another way, those that stay in combat 730 days in a row are more likely to die than those that are in combat only 365 days in a row. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Introducing the Fusion Authority Quarterly Update. 80 pages of hard-hitting, up-to-date ColdFusion information by your peers, delivered to your door four times a year. http://www.fusionauthority.com/quarterly Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/CF-Community/message.cfm/messageid:220447 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/CF-Community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=89.70.5
