the thing that is outstanding here is that you are still condescendingly explaining where he is wrong ;) Crack a statistics text, dude.
If the coin toss is a reference model, it's yours, and it sucks. Let me scroll up and see what your exact argument is, and see if I can't straighten this out. I think you may need somehting like the drake equation. On 11/12/06, Gruss Gott <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > RoMunn wrote: > > No, no, no. if 1 in 167 people is killed each year, > > Here's where you're stuck: There's a difference between the odds of a > favorable outcome in one iteration and that favorable outcome > **without losing** **multiple times in a row**. So the odds of death > do indeed double the longer you stay because you're extending the odds > of a favorable outcome *without dying* across 2 years, not 1. > > If one could die in year 1 and then return from the dead to fight > again in year 2, you'd be right. But that's not possible so you're > wrong. I'll show you the math again: > > Every time a soldier goes into combat they have **TWO** probabilities > that are important: > > (1.) The probability that they will die **on any given day**. This is > where you and Dana are stuck. > > (2.) The probability of NOT dying **multiple days in a row**. If you > can't make it multiple days in a row WITHOUT DYING, you can't live and > return to combat. > > Therefore when you calculate the probability you MUST calculate the > probability of the favorable outcome multiple days in a row. Here are > those calculations: > > ..999983^365=.993814 This is the calculation that shows the probability > of living 365 days in a row. It says that, based on current casualty > rates, that probability is 99.3814% > > 0.999983^730 = 0.987667 This is calculation that shows the > probability of living 2x365=730 days in a row. That probability is > 98.7667% > > 98.7667% < 99.3814% which means that the longer you stay in combat the > more likely you are to die. > > Now let's address your concern: > -------------------------------------------------------- > The probability of living is 98.7667 so 1 - 0.987667 = 0.012333 or > 1.2% which is probability of dying. > > That means 12.33 / 1000 will die based on current rates or > (12.33/12.33) / (1000/12.33) = 1/81.103 > > or 1 in 81 **of those in combat 2 years in a row** will die. > > Here's the key: [listen closely now] > > Of those that are in combat for 730 days in a row, 1 in 81 will die. > Or, put another way, those that stay in combat 730 days in a row are > more likely to die than those that are in combat only 365 days in a > row. > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Introducing the Fusion Authority Quarterly Update. 80 pages of hard-hitting, up-to-date ColdFusion information by your peers, delivered to your door four times a year. http://www.fusionauthority.com/quarterly Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/CF-Community/message.cfm/messageid:220459 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/CF-Community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=11502.10531.5
