I can't find the article at the moment, but I recently read a bit where lead pollster for Bradley's opponent in 82 came out and said that the effect was non-existant, that their internal polls were spot on, but that the published polls of the time (of which there were not many) were just badly done.
Anyway, polls are tough. I tend to believe some of the polls more than others because of their long term track record. And I tend to believe composite polls even more. But this year looks like a statistical outlier pretty much any way you examine it. Black man running even or better for President. Unprecedented. A sitting Senator guaranteed to win the Presidency no matter what. Haven't had a sitting Senator as President since Kennedy. Troops involved in 2 wars, one of which is substantially unpopular, embroiled in an economic confusion that has the government involved in the economy in ways it hasn't in more than a generation and the greatest confusion hitting right before the election. Sitting President with favorability ratings matching the lowest ever seen and unfavorability higher than any president ever polled. Party that made significant gains in the House and the Senate likely to increase their lead in this election..virtually unprecedented. Add that all together and this isn't your ordinary election. I give a strong edge to Obama based on enthusiasm, a desire for change and the Republican brand being in the trash right now. But its tough to say for certain. We are in uncharted territory here. That's why Gallup has several different models, which I believe is the first time they've done that. Most years, they say "here is registered voters, here is likely voters" and recommend one of the models. This year they split it up under different models and don't have a recommendation. Flat out, they aren't sure who is going to show up and vote and what they are going to vote for. I have my suspicions but I've been wrong before. Judah On Thu, Oct 16, 2008 at 4:58 PM, Larry Lyons <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >>> Larry wrote: >>> I did. From what it looks like, Obama just needs to retain >> >>Based on polls. >> >>Even if there is no October surprise, there's still the Bradley effect. > > The Bradley effect is far overstated. There are plenty of cases where it was > touted and shown not to have an effect. Douglas Wilder's election as Governor > of Virginia and later on as mayor of Richmond demonstrates that. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Adobe® ColdFusion® 8 software 8 is the most important and dramatic release to date Get the Free Trial http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;207172674;29440083;f Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/message.cfm/messageid:275086 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=89.70.5
