On Thu, Jan 14, 2010 at 3:06 PM, Judah McAuley <[email protected]>
>
> You need to go back and look at your graph again. Those are not graphs
> of when recessions started and ended, those are graphs of other
> economic indicators and where they stood X number of months after the
> beginning of a recession.  For instance, the 1990 recession (kind of a
> yellow/goldenrod color in your graph) only lasted 8 months. So when
> you are looking at the figures 24 months after the start of the 1990
> recession, that recession has been over for 16 months already.

And the 1990 line level off at 10 months and then gradually rises.
Only a two month lag.

> Which brings up an excellent point, which is that these graphs do not
> take into account the length of each of the recessions. A similar, and
> probably more useful, comparison would be start at the end point of
> each recession. How long did it take for job recovery after each
> recession ended? How quickly did economic output pick up after the end
> of the recession?

Pinpointing the exact technical date of a recessions end is pointless
for this graph. We're looking at recovery in employment. You seem to
think the current recession is over yet jobs are still plummeting.
That's a jobless recovery and is worth less than nothing.

> Employment, in particular, is known to be a lagging indicator. The GDP
> recovers first and then, after some unknown period, hiring tends to
> pick up as companies become less skittish about adding longer term
> costs.

The GDP is still lower and has only recovered slightly from the
bottom. This makes it the worst of all listed.

> The economy is not in good shape and jobs are in even worse shape, no
> doubt. But these graphs don't say what you seem to think they say.

I think they're saying of all the recessions since 1948 this one is
the only one that gets worse not better over time

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