It isn't to remove paper manuals.
It isn't to remove physical distribution.
It's to stop piracy. This is the major, overriding reason why they want to do this.
And what I'm saying is that it's pointless. If executable code exists on my machine, it's extractable. And thus the whole reasoning why they want it to attempt it falls apart. Of course, the marketing people at Steam and another similar companies are trying to convince executives at publishing firms that, in fact, their system is "hackproof", when we all know that no such system exists.
I mean, why bother with a closed architecture, if it has so many drawbacks (no expandability, for one)? Well, it's another link in the chain to stop piracy. Which, as we no, is futile because as long as PCs exist, there will be a way to emulate such a device and to extract the contents of whatever.
----- Original Message -----
From: Jim Davis <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Monday, January 19, 2004 1:08 pm
Subject: RE: Bleak future for videogamers?
> I definitely think that it will happen sooner or later. However the
> question to me isn't distribution, it's ownership vrs. Pay-as-you-go.
>
> As to the distribution we're already seeing less of a reliance on the
> physical media (the song- and file-swapping networks are
> indicative of
> this). The issue now isn't media, it's speed and reliability. I
> can go out
> and buy a CD. Or I can download it. It takes longer to download
> it and my
> continued ownership of it is dependent on the quality of my
> storage media
> (my hard drive). I'm also limited by the size of my personal storage.
>
> As both the speed of distribution and reliability/size of storage
> increasesI'm sure that reliance on the physical media will also
> fade. An closely
> analogous market is the cell-phone software market. You buy ring-
> tones,games, software, etc for your phone and never expect
> physical media. This
> is, to be sure, because the cost and file sizes are very small but the
> concept is similar.
>
> Another is the financial (and other) industries move towards paperless
> online statements. Video on demand is making noticeable headway
> into the
> video rental markets in areas where it's available. We've already
> seen a
> software industry wide move to drop paper manuals (and their
> costs) from
> packaging and replace it with online help (or at the worst, simple PDF
> versions of the manuals).
>
> Basically many of those things that can be replaced by online
> delivery are
> being replaced. Slowly to be sure, but they are. In all
> successful cases
> the delivery mechanism is effectively instantaneous.
>
> That's not to be extreme about it and say that NO physical media
> will exist.
> It may not COMPLETELY supplant it (what's ever 100%?), but I think
> we'lldefinitely reach a point were obtaining physical media will
> be a rare,
> difficult to request. Like trying to find a recent release on vinyl.
>
> I think we'll get there eventually, but it may take longer than
> some people
> predict (I've heard "two or three years" for example). I would
> think, if
> current trends in connectivity, speed, and storage stay strong
> we'll be
> fully in this phase in say, 15 years. I expect before then for
> some basic
> architecture level changes to occur - Steam may be a major prod
> there. For
> example I think we'll see games designed for streaming play soon.
> Insteadof downloading 700meg and then installing you'll download
> 20 meg and start
> to play while the rest of the game content streams in from the
> downloadservice.
>
> This is actually pretty easy to do now (the game engine is
> generally one of
> the smaller overall chunks of the game with the art and in-game
> stuff next
> followed finally by voice and music and then finally by video cut-
> scenes).The technology is already moving in that direction to
> diminish load times
> from CD - it's not a stretch to see it expanded to deal with
> longer times.
>
> Anyway the question isn't distribution (to me) it's ownership.
> Are we going
> to pay $50 for game and "keep it" or are we going to pay $5 a day (or
> whatever) to play a game? I prefer the former, greatly, but the
> latter is a
> good option for those that rent frequently.
>
> In short I think that both options will be available. Pay a
> large, one-time
> fee to play unlimited (just like buying a game today) or pay smaller,
> periodic fees to play a game for a short while (just like renting
> a game
> today). In either case I think the trend is moving towards online
> delivery.I also think that additional funding will be gained via
> additions and
> enhancements to games.
>
> For example I might pay $50 to play a game as often as I want but
> then need
> to pay $10 more to get new levels as they come out. However if I
> chose to
> pay $10 for a weekend of play when the game came out I could,
> later, pay
> that $10 again to rent the fully updated game.
>
> Personally I tend to play games to death - getting everything single
> possible thing in them. But then I never play then again -
> there's just too
> much coming out. I also tend to play just one game at a time,
> finishing it
> before starting another.
>
> I might get 100 hours of entertainment from "Final Fantasy X" -
> which means
> it's economical (in our hypothetical future world) to buy the game
> outright(or, considering the delivery, a unlimited license for the
> game). However
> another truly great game like "Silent Hill 3" may only take 8
> hours to
> finish. For this a weekend license would probably suffice - but I
> mightrent it again at some point just to show a friend that cool
> scene in that
> mall.
>
> I would, of course, keep (just as I do today) all of my progress
> and in-game
> goodies in all the games I play on personal media. If the
> delivery were
> instantaneous (and didn't require me to go outside) I could easily see
> myself renting the vast majority of my titles.
>
> Lastly I also think that for this to become a success certain
> issues need to
> be dealt with. For example portability. I should be able (and
> really have
> to be able for the process to successful) to play that game on any
> console I
> want: in the family room, in the bedroom and at a friends house.
> Anotherissue that I think is coming soon is buyer remorse issues.
> Technology can
> track my usage so it should be intelligent about it.
>
> Considering no physical media if I rent a movie and never watch it
> a good
> system would extend me credit. If I rent a video game for the weekend
> (again assuming online delivery) and can't play it I shouldn't
> pay. I'm
> not, like I would be with physical media, prevent other customers from
> access the same content so the traditional restrictions should be
> loosened.
> Anyways I think we'll be getting more and more things online and
> see fewer
> and fewer examples of physical distribution media as networking tech
> improves.
>
> Jim Davis
>
>
>
> _____
>
> From: Kwang Suh [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Sent: Monday, January 19, 2004 1:43 AM
> To: CF-Community
> Subject: RE: Bleak future for videogamers?
>
> The author was saying that the pay per use system will completely
> supplantthe physical distribution model, which I say will _never_
> happen.
>
> Besides, it's pointless. If the game is on my system, rest
> assured there
> will be some way for me to get at it and play it for free.
>
>
> As for the points about a closed PC architecture, that idea is so
> ludicrousI can't believe he actually thinks it's going to happen.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Andrew Scott [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Sent: January 18, 2004 11:32 PM
> To: CF-Community
> Subject: RE: Bleak future for videogamers?
>
> Unfortunately yes it will, but it will be some time down the track.
>
> Take into consideration that gamers of today want more, bigger
> games, fixes
> etc. XBox live is a typical example of this, to get more content
> for your
> live game is just the beginning.
>
> But the thing that will make it a slow progression is that not
> everyone will
> be connected to the net, so there will still be that market for a
> very long
> time. Music downloads is a typical example, on how things are
> progressingtowards the pay as you need system.
>
> Regards
> Andrew Scott
> Technical Consultant
>
> NuSphere Pty Ltd
> Level 2/33 Bank Street
> South Melbourne, Victoria, 3205
>
> Phone: 03 9686 0485 - Fax: 03 9699 7976
>
> _____
>
> From: Kwang Suh [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Sent: Monday, 19 January 2004 5:21 PM
> To: CF-Community
> Subject: RE: Bleak future for videogamers?
>
> Never gonna happen.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Angel Stewart [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Sent: January 18, 2004 10:21 PM
> To: CF-Community
> Subject: Bleak future for videogamers?
>
> HYPERLINK
> "http://curmudgeongamer.com/article.php?story=20040113221322445"http://c
> urmudgeongamer.com/article.php?story=20040113221322445
>
> "... And that's where were headed, like it or not. No physical
> media. No
> rentals. No used games. No sharing games among friends. Limited
> hardwareupgrades. Pay-to-play. Unless something seriously changes
> the course of
> the industry, this is the future. "
>
> Interesting article. Don't know if I agree with everything, but
> it's a
> bit alarming that it's all quite possible.
>
> -Gel
>
> ---
> Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> Version: 6.0.559 / Virus Database: 351 - Release Date: 1/7/2004
> _____
> _____
> _____
> _____
>
>
>
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